Spanish Refs Dish Up A Spread

As promised, over the coming weeks, we will take a more detailed look at individual spread betting markets, with some tips to follow if you wish.

If you are unfamiliar with the Bookings Index spread market, let me briefly explain. The firms set a price based on 10 points awarded for a booking, and 25 for a sending off. If a player is booked, then send off, that counts as 35 points on the spread.

Of all the top leagues, La Liga consistently produces much higher make-ups in these markets. The average spread tally for Spain's top division is around 62 points, while Serie A's is 55 or so, and the good old Premiership is a picnic for referees, averaging only about 35 points per game.

Naturally, the difference from one match to the next can be massive, and you could rightly expect local derbies for example, to produce more cards. Not always so of course, but often it is, and the spread firms build this into their market price.

Last weekend's fixtures in Spain outlined the volatility perfectly. The 10 matches produced 53 bookings and 5 sendings off, 65 points per match on average. But, the lowest make-up came in the Bilbao v Barca game at only 20, while the Malaga v Zaragoza match ran up 9 yellows and 2 reds, so 140 points on the spreads.

The trick is obviously to find the matches which the spread firms have perhaps priced up wrongly. Not too difficult if you have the statistics to hand, as I have. But, the vagaries of this market are such that one wild challenge or some sort of nasty undercurrent in a match can result in a referee losing the plot and flashing his tarjetas willy-nilly.  We've all seen it.

I visit Spain a couple of times a year generally, and I've been to pre-season friendlies there between lower league sides, and the ref has booked 7 players and send one off! And often with hardly a tackle worthy of the name in the whole match.

The only statistics needed for this are, the disciplinary record of the teams, and the appointed referees stats for dishing out the cards. As for which of these three numbers is most pertinent, you would probably expect the referees record to hold sway, but my research suggests that in fact the average of the two teams involved is at least equally important.

Leave that one with me though, as the bigger the data sample I can collect, the more reliable the findings become.

I'll be looking across the fixture list for this weekend, and hopefully pick out a match or two that you could dip your toe into, or keep a watching brief if you prefer.

Remember, understand the risks involved before you dabble, and please ask if you have any queries. Don't dive in – spread betting is great fun, but know what you're doing first.

Look out for my La Liga Bookings tips by Friday evening and if you don't have a Sporting Index account, then click this link & sign up so you're ready for the weekend