Making the Best of Free Resources – Part Five

There are some very “sharp minds” on Betting Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq, and even the old enemy the bookmakers make extensive use of the Exchanges to lay off liabilities, and in many cases it is the Exchanges which now drive the betting markets, and in particular on UK Horse Racing. With this in mind we need to constantly be looking for new angles and strategies, and one excellent Free Resource that I use on a regular basis to carry out this research is on the Adrian Massey website.

The site contains a wealth of statistics for horse racing in the UK in addition to unique ratings which are updated on a daily basis. Everything from how often favourites win races, which jockeys and trainers are in form and what the draw advantage is if any at various UK race courses. The statistics are derived from the results of over 100,000 UK horse races dating back to 1991, The site owner Adrian Massey has run in the London marathon for the last 8 years and has raised more than £150,000 for charity. A mark of respect for his site is highlighted by the fact that much of the money raised was donated by users of the site.

There are so many methods and ideas that can be checked out by research tools that the site provides by simply ticking or un-ticking the very clear and simple to use parameters / categories. Your chosen parameters then provide you with a results section based on the factors that you are looking to research.

One simple idea that I had a look at recently, was how does the weight a horse is set to carry in a Handicap Chase affect the result. In theory if the Official Handicapper is doing his job correctly the different weights allotted are supposed to give each runner an equal opportunity to win. Well interestingly the higher the weight carried compared to the average weight in the race the more runners that they would beat, BUT also the more money you would lose buy backing them. The better horses based on past form are asked to carry the most weight but also they tend to go off at shorter prices because of the strength of this form is there for everyone to see. The lower weighted horses are both younger and less experienced, or are possibly older and on the decline, and the handicapper is relenting by reducing its rating.

Either way and without any further checks you can actually make a profit by simply backing “horses running in Handicap Chases that are carrying 14lb (or more) LESS weight than the average for the race”.At Industry SP the profit is actually +16% but would be considerably more if using the Betfair SP facility.

Weight Analysis – 1991-2009

All Handicap Chases  (14490 Races)

This profit is based on the research of over 14,000 Handicap Chases so should be a very robust start to further refine with more research. The betting forecast and live markets are generally influenced by the racing form that has been achieved and is available for everyone to see. This results in horses that have shown less form so far going off at much bigger “value prices”.

The Adrian Massey site provides you with a perfect opportunity to carry out extensive research on pretty much any idea that influences how you currently make your selections. Ask yourself a simple and honest question…… is what you are currently doing making you a regular and consistent profit? If not, maybe it is time for you to have a look at something new by making use of the available Free Resources.