Now an independent writer for www.laytheodds.com, I was initially only betting on football for fun at school with my friends and generally did well. I must have been about twelve when my dad, an accountant for a large insurance company in London at the time, entered me in a World Cup prediction competition with about 50 of his colleagues. I came second and, with the top three sharing the £1250 total prize money, won a lot of money for myself. >From then on, my dad often came to me on advice on correct scores and he won more than he lost.
As soon as I was old enough, I began betting in bookies myself and it all took on from there really. I've tried other sports apart from football, too, but wasn't anywhere near as successful, although at the time of writing, I'm studying horse racing a lot as I view my one-dimensional betting as a personal betting weakness.
Fortunately I was never what you'd call a 'mug punter'. I understood the concepts of good money management, looking for the biggest price and the importance of finding value very early on. Time passed and I'd currently call myself a part-time punter, although I use the term lightly as I do a lot of trading on betfair and play a little poker. The other part of my income comes from journalism and football coaching, mainly working with kids in academies.
Here is my Football Trading Manual!
Read my blog
This strategy involves identifying teams who regularly pick up bookings and laying them in the ‘under 5 points’ booking markets (as long as the game has more than two yellow cards, you win the lay as a yellow card is equal to 2 points.Part 3:
Trading Football Bookings
This strategy involves identifying teams who regularly pick up bookings and laying them in the ‘under 5 points’ booking markets (as long as the game has more than two yellow cards, you win the lay as a yellow card is equal to 2 points. If a player is sent off, you win the lay, too.). You hope for an early booking, in which case you back ‘under 5 points’ again at a higher price, locking in profit.
Last season, for example (2005/2006), laying games involving the likes Everton, Bolton and Blackburn or teams in a relegation scrap and avoiding games involving teams like Liverpool and Chelsea, who get few bookings, would have been profitable if each game was backed religiously without any further thought or trading when/if the price of the ‘under 5 points’ market rises.
With time you’ll be able to decide yourself at what point you like to trade off, if the trade goes against you, however, it’s important to remember often the second half produces more bookings than the first. I personally like to get to the hour mark before accepting defeat, but it’s a matter or personal preference and risk.
In my opinion and they are usually underpriced anyway, and my average odds are around 4 when laying ‘under 5 points’, staggeringly low, however, the price was steadily rising as last season progressed. A strike high strike rate is needed to make money, but when you do your research, strike rates in excess of 80% are very achievable.
It’s also worth looking at the referees. Obviously, the stricter the referee, the higher the likelihood of players being booked. The BBC publish referee tables on their website, which are useful when analysing how strict the refs are. Similarly, various websites produce fair play ratings on teams, which can be invaluable for identifying which games are likely to have a lot of bookings. A simple search on Google will come up with a plethora of such sites. Injuries and suspensions to the players who tend to pick up the bookings are also worth noting. For example, a game featuring Blackburn with an injured Robbie Savage might be worth missing.
Finally, during the 2006 World Cup, there were bookings galore. The past two seasons I’ve tried this has been successful, but it will be worth watching closely to see if the flurry of bookings continue in the domestic and european competitions next season and looking to see trends on these leagues that may follow the World Cup. Also, the high bookings may influence the early part of the season, increasing the odds required to lay ‘under 5 points’ higher than usual and I’d advise you to look out for this ahead of the 2006/2007 season.
Regarding this strategy, if you have any comments, questions or suggestions, feel free to contact me at clotmyster@hotmail.com and I’ll do my best to reply as soon as possible.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Part 4:
Trading Football Games After a Goal
This is a very quick strategy to do in-running, during a football match. By backing teams to win after they have scored the first goal, you can normally lock in profit after a minute of two once the price drops down. Obviously, the downside is a quick goal from the other team.
It's often heard that you are most vulnerable when you have just scored, but I challenge this opinion and think people just remember the few occassions this does happen, rather than the large majority of the time when this doesn't happen. Furthermore, by studying team trends, you should be able to spot which teams score goals after conceeding and which teams lose confidence and stop playing well. Opposingly, teams which score and don't conceed and teams which score and go on to conceed can also be easily studied. By identifying these teams, you can also increase your edge and chances of winning. Something the average betfair punter won't even be thinking about in-running. I can’t give any examples of how this strategy has worked for me, purely because it was an idea that dawned on me recently and something I will be trying for the first time when the Premiership season kicks off again in August 2006.