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Handicap Racing
- By Chris Keating
- Published 10/2/2007
- Horse Racing Articles
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I have tried to get an angle into handicap races for some time, and to be honest it’s a difficult pastime!
Because of the unique aspects of handicap races, there are some methods that may work in our attempt to unravel these generally difficult races – the difficulty coming from the fact that these races are engineered to give each horse a theorietically equal chance of winning.
The best horses in these races, from the handicapper’s eyes, are the ones that will be weighted the most – simply to give those with perceived lesser ability a chance.
So can we base a backing system on weight?
Well, some have advocated looking through the race card and backing the horse who is top weighted with the biggest difference in weight between him and the second weighted horse – why? Well the idea behind this is that if the top weighted horse is CLEARLY top weighted, it must be the class animal of the field. Makes sense! I am following this system daily and keeping tabs of results but there are not enough results to conclusively say that this system has any merit.
Another system looks to narrow the field immediately by focussing on handicap races of 10 runners or less. Yes this makes sense – fewer opponents of course.
The system then tells us to focus on the top 6 in the weights with further rules to narrow the field. This system uses a variation of the “ fit,fancied and in form” methodology – fit – to qualify for this race the horse must have run its last race 15 days or less ago. In form – the horse must have finished in the first 3 in its last 2 races and within the first 9 or so in its other races. So what’s the thoughts behind this system? Again the emphasis is on those with the most weight because they are, in the handicapper’s view, the best 6 horses in the race. By looking to see whether the horse has run recently, we can assume it is fit, and by ensuring it has placed in its last 2 races, we are assured of an element of consistency.
Yet another system focuses on these top 6 in the weights and backs the biggest priced horse in the betting forecast of the Racing Post who was placed last time out ( eg in the top 3 in less than 16 runner fields and in the top 4 in 16+ runner fields)
That’s all very well, but if you don’t want to actually get involved in these selection systems, then are there any handicap specific tipsters out there? Well the answer is YES. I have found one tipster who is consistent and profitable during my testing period, and its Martin Blakey at Target10.co.uk. Check out the results for yourself. They are fully verifiable by me .
Laytheodds.com have managed to secure you a huge discount on Martins service and book. If you would like to take advantage of this discount, please go to the contact form and say that you have been referred by laytheodds.com - Martin will then set up your discount for you!
The discount rates are as follows.
3 months £200. Normally £295.00
6 months £350. Normally £495.00
12 months.£500. Normally £795.00
The book can be purchased at £125.00 per copy.
The Professional Handicap Strategy operates all year round on the flat, all weather and national hunt. It highlights horses that are improving way beyond their official rating and any horse that achieves a rating of 10 or more according to the strict rules is a recommended bet providing it passes the final rule, which involves the live betting market. It is a very advanced rating strategy for handicaps that will provide you with a very high strike rate of win and placed horses all year round. The months of May, June, July and August are are the strong betting months on the flat when the plan gives out an extremely high strike rate, it then slows down a little bit as form starts to take a dip, especially on horses that have had a long season. The plan then moves on the autumn and winter months of the all weather and National Hunt season which is very very lucrative indeed, with the plan highlighting some outstanding betting opportunities.
This is a golden opportunity to get your hands on a copy of this plan, it is not on public sale but after many requests Martin has agreed to make copies available to any laytheodds members who contact him.
I have tried to get him to reveal his method to me but, alas, he won’t! Target10.co.uk is handicap specific and has been flying throughout the flat season. The emphasis is on the horse placing with the win naturally being an added bonus. Stakes are weighted in favour of the place with slightly smaller stakes on the win - check out the results for yourself – they are most impressive. Martin Blakey also includes a kind of insurance with his bets – if the horse drifts in the live market – leave it alone.
I have personally tried to figure out the system by checking selections against the race card, and thought I’d sussed it out – back the shortest priced horse who has had a series of placed efforts recently without winning – but I was shot down in flames by Mr Blakey! I’ll not give up though and will keep track of this (yet another!) handicap system as it has an element of logic to it.
This is one of the more consistent tipsters I have come across, who doesn’t shout it from the rooftops (which is a plus in my books). Have a look at the site and check out the results in full – I hope he can continue delivering in the same vein as he has during the flat season 2007.
Click here for Martin Blakely Handicap Plan
