No this week’s eletter is not about recycling or reducing your carbon footprint, it’s about taking a profit when a profit presents itself! I learnt this lesson well last weekend, particularly in the Arse versus Sunderland Game.

I backed Arsenal in the match odds market with the sole intention of laying off my stake when Arsenal scored the first goal. 7 minutes gone and Robin Van Persie scores. Now having backed Arsenal at 1.26 or thereabouts I can now lay off the bet at 1.13 – the price has reduced directly in response to the goal. Did I? Nahh! I let the bookies best friend grab me by the lapels – his name – GREED!

I was watching the game and saw Arsenal in the ascendancy and could see them scoring a couple more before half time ( note to self, you are not mystic meg!)

14 minutes gone, and Philip Senderos scores – 2-0 to the Arsenal and the price to lay reduces further to 1.06. Now I could have traded off here, but did I? Naaah! I thought, 2-0 this will be a stroll, so I’ll let me bet ride.

25th minute 2-1 –Sunderland score. Now the odds for me to reverse out increase back to 1.16 or thereabouts. I hold on. The second half is coming. Arsenal will wrap this up no bother.

48th minute – 2-2 – a quick pit stop to change underwear and  a number of large deposits in the swear jar. If I traded out here, I would be in the red on all outcomes.
 
80th minute ( YES I had to wait til the 80th MINUTE!) – Robin Van Persie saves my skin and this time the penny drops – I trade out at 1.13 and green up the screen ensuring I make a profit on all outcomes.

LESSON TO LEARN – trade out of all in running bets when the opportunity arises.

Did I learn my lesson? Naaaahhh!

Let’s move on to yesterday’s 720 at Kempton. I noticed that Bronze Cannon was drifting. I decided to lay the horse prior to the race at odds of 8, with the intention of backing the horse, in intervals, in the in running market should the price rise above the 8 at which I laid the horse.

Race goes in running – throughout the race, Bronze Cannon’s price fluctuates and hits 15 a couple of times, so I take a few quid from that. I follow the race – from the prices (I can’t see the race) I determine Bronze Cannon is getting stuffed. I decide , even through the price hit 50’s in running, to let my bet ride and increase my returns ( it’s the old greed monster coming up again!) With Bronze Cannon hitting 50 in running and 2 other horses hovering at around 2.6, it looked as if Bronze Cannon was finished.

Guess what? Suddenly the horse became Pegasus and won at 11/2.

Swear Jar out again – I could have backed Bronze Cannon for £2 to ensure a green screen, and instead of a nice £50 profit, I made a £47 loss on Bronze Cannon.

One more example will, I hope, nail the message home. This involved the ,ahem, England under 16’s versus Northern Ireland under 16’s. I didn’t get involved early on. England at 1.36 are far too short. Half time came, and a 1.36 shot are trading at 1.8 because it’s 0-0. This is too good to miss, so I get on. England score 1-0. Excellent I thought, and THIS TIME, I traded out and greened up on all outcomes – including Northern Ireland to win, and the Draw, and thank God ( or the betting god at least!) that I did. Northern Ireland get a penalty – 1-1.

4 minutes to go – England go 2-1 up. They must win now. Some fellow punters on Betfair backed England at 1.06 here with 2 minutes to go.They presume it’s buying money! 82 minutes gone (this is an 80 minute game!) Northern Ireland equalise. I have learned my lesson and, no matter how unlikely other eventualities may be, I greened up on all outcomes.

Here’s some entries from the Betfair thread pertaining to the game

“   yet again I *****ed a load of money on awful quality football….why am I betting such sums on this *****”

“****, done me bank on that, really have, didnt expect that much time, tried to lay back and couldnt get matched”

“.went in heavy at what I thought was great odds, expecting 2 mins max….had no chance to get out .I blown a lot of good work after a terrible run…my season goes from bad to worse”

“but I hate losing bets like this one as I was so confident it would win. Really makes you rethink things.”

You’ll see the words “expect”, “confident” “ what I thought” – personal opinion. They had the bookies and other betfair punter’s best friend on their shoulder – yes GREED – whispering for them to pile in to make FREE money, GUARANTEED – go on, put more than that in – it’s nailed on – it’s a cert!

I hope this will bang in to you traders out there that you must green up ON ALL OUTCOMES and  AS SOON AS THE OPPORTUNITY ARISES.

Don’t load up on one team, like England under 16’s – Northern Ireland could draw still (even though we’re in the second minute of extra time)

Don’t PRESUME that a horse is nailed on to lose because it’s in running price is 50!
Don’t presume FULL STOP!

It can be very difficult to sacrifice some of your profits in order to return your stake and green up on all outcomes when it looks as if you’ve got a nailed on winner. Remember, unless you’re Russell Grant, or Mystic Meg, or Derek Acorah, you don’t know what might happen. Trade in the expectation that the unexpected is just around the corner and take the profit and RUN!