It’s been an interesting week in the betting world this week, with football naturally taking centre stage. How did I approach these matches? Well there were so many mismatches that the opportunity was there to back one of the shorties and lay off as soon as they scored the first goal. It requires a bit of faith that these short priced teams score, and it also takes an element of good decision making in choosing the right team. I chose Portugal as my one team ,away to the might of Kazakhstan, who actually dropped Borat for this important match. Yes Portugal scored, but in the 82nd minute – got to remember this is a game of 90 minutes, and I had to say “ I like”.

Because I was involved elsewhere with my trading I missed out on France versus Lithuania and this proved a blessing in disguise. Why? Well it was 70 minutes into the game and still 0-0. Now bear in mind that France started at 1.09 and were now trading at evens with 20 minutes to go, and the power of in running betting really came into its own. I couldn’t resist it – I backed the French at evens and Thierry Henry scored 2 goals in quick succession to bump my returns nicely. Backing a 1/10 or shorter prospect at evens – bet of the century!

These opportunities come around all the time. The one that sticks in my mind is Man Utd v Blackburn when they were 2-0 down at half time last year and really flying in the league. Backing Man Utd at half time ,from a trading perspective is a good move. Even if they just score one goal their odds will reduce allowing a window of opportunity for the trade to lay off at odds shorter than you backed. 2-1 changes the whole complexion of a game – 2-0 looks a difficult scoreline to get back, but 2-1? It starts putting fear into the team leading.

Final score – Man Utd win.

This is the only way I know of backing ultra short priced teams at hugely inflated odds – I mentioned it last time but it still rings true and is a great little system for those who fancy  a team BUT don’t want to get involved at short prices.

On the other side of the coin, how can we avoid those short prices and perhaps lay them. Well again this week, the Republic of Ireland were quoted at 1/3 at home to Cyprus who were impressive victors over Wales. –3-1. Ireland are in turmoil with no confidence in the manager – what Im saying here is that freely available info and research can help you spot these bets. I must admit, living in Ireland, I had access to the local papers – half of Croke Park would be unfilled, everyone wants the manager sacked, and bookies are asking me to back the team at 1/3 – you’re having a giraffe!.

As it happened Cyprus scored the first goal. Now if your research tells you that the Republic aren’t really a betting proposition, Betfair will allow you to lay the Republic, or, more temptingly, back Cyprus at 11.5. Imagine having a crafty tenner or twenty quid on Cyprus in the hope they can produce something! – It’s some payout , even though they didn’t go on to win the game. They scored first and this is the key.Their odds of 11.5 diminished to 3 allowing a nice and much sought after green screen.

It’s really all about your decision making based on freely available information – make a call based on the weight of evidence and again you can oppose bookies opinions and fellow betfairians opinions.

Another great in running sport is tennis. There was an epic battle yesterday between Nadal and Jamie Murray. Odds fluctuated after each service game, sometimes wildly, and ,if you had the right software to place instant bets you could have hoovered up. For example, Murray was a break up in the second set at 3-1. Nadal bought it back to 3-2. Murray had to hold serve. What’s your opinion? Will he bottle it? If so then back Nadal because if he gets his break back he’ll be the fav.

It’s exciting stuff and is  a rollercoaster ride.

For those wanting a more sedate betting adventure, laying heavy odds on shots, particularly in the woman’s game, can really pay, AS LONG AS THE GAME IS IN RUNNING of course. Recent examples of flops include Sharapova at 1/6 ( and again research rears its head – she was coming back from a layoff and short of match fitness), and Kuznetsova who, although winning her first round ,lost the first set. Cue her odds rising dramatically and those of you taking the bookmakers approach and laying her, you’d have been able to create a green screen with ease.

Advantages? Laying ultra short prices mean liability is not a worry BUT returns can be handsome for the outlay.    

The in running markets are perhaps most used on the horses. But there is a stark contrast between football, tennis and horses, and it’s an obvious one of course! The horse in play markets are over in a jiffy. The football and tennis markets are open for an hour or more and are slow burners.

Betting on the horses in running is a very dangerous pursuit unless you have a predetermined plan. So you need an angle with which to approach races. Are you a hedger? Are you trying to buy money by betting big at 1.02 or 1.01? Indeed are you a 1.01 layer? Because of the volatility of the horse racing markets you must determine your strategy, or group of strategies in advance.

Personally, again I use the shorties approach . Take Iron Maid and Blazing Sky yesterday. I back them pre race, and when the in market goes in running, I have already placed a lay bet to be matched at 0.10 points below the backing price. Now if these shorties are involved at the business end, as their prices suggest they will be, my lay bet will be matched and I will create a green screen EVEN IF THE HORSE LOSES!.

If you’re a layer ,and it’s a 3 mile 2 furlong 10 runner handicap hurdle on soft ground, perhaps you’ll take a different approach. 3 miles + is a long way for any horse to be carrying the Keating Millions  so sometimes I lay the horse pre race and place a back bet at higher odds in the hope the horse will make at least one mistake in the race. The market is highly reactive and if the horse clips a fence, then the odds will reflect that. Putting your order into the live market, rather than trying to do it manually, is the ideal because the leap in odds may only be instantaneous.

Is there anywhere where you can find more information about in running strategies? Well, all of the manuals on this issue are frankly old hat and it’s really down to experience and the key to success is specialist software. I’ve mentioned fairbot before and only because of its functionality and price I just can’t get it beaten! I have great fun with the functions – sometimes I dutch horses in running using its dutching function with live prices, or I’ll lay the field in running at ,say odds of 2 in an 18 runner handicap. If a horses price descends to 2 in this type of race, it is no signal that the horse will win. If I get 2 horses matched at 2, I will profit .They can’t both win the race.

There are a myriad of strategies and I want to share them with you in future newsletters. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the football shorties having trouble scoring against minnows. I’ll leave you with the Celtic Gretna match recently. Gretna score first. It’s past 80 minutes Celtic are trading at 10. Remember you’re backing a 1 / 4  shot at nearly 10/1 – I had to take it, got the prayer mat out, and Celtic won 2-1 with goals in the 86th and 90th minute – OH HAPPY DAYS!

So take a peak at the in running markets. The opportunities to prosper are there. Have faith in those ultra short priced teams if they still haven’t scored in the 70th minute. You’re getting class odds about 1/5 shots! Enjoy!