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The Inside Scoop (i)
- By Matt Finnigan
- Published 09/21/2007
- Weekly Columns
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Matt Finnigan
I have been professional punter and successful trader since August 2002 when I left my high profile job as company spokesman for Ladbrokes. I believe the two disciplines are separate, because one is gambling and the other is risk management, however I do feel there is room for both and you should never be frightened to take one-way positions.
During the past five years I kept a low profile although I have acted as consultant to various companies within this industry. November 2007 I decide to launch Pro X Trading to mentor a maximum 100 traders become more professional with their approach to trading, enabling them supplement their income with extra money from the exchanges.
Welcome to my weekly laytheodds column 'The Inside Scoop' which I will post every Friday before midday. I have always associated the word scoop with money, ever since my teenage days, when me and workmate used to go from seaside resort to seaside resort cleaning out the fruit machines.
He was the talented one, so good, I nicknamed him SCOOP. Because he was always scooping money out of the fruit machine troughs. We're not talking about about a few extra pounds but several hundred pounds each weekend, the holiday makers would fill up the machines in the week and we felt it was our duty to empty them at the weekends.
With the blanket coverage of three world cups at them moment you could say we have too many opportunities to make money on the betting exchanges. The Womens world cup has been very fruitful for me over the past few weeks and I have been surprised by the liquidity in markets on Betfair.
Yesterday's non-live televised match between hosts China and New Zealand is what I want to talk about this week. China needed to win to progress in the tournament and New Zealand were the weakest team in the group, it was easy chance to buy money for the big hitters!
Before the kick-off the match market was a wash with money being matched on China at 1.08 & 1.09, I was certain myself that China would win the match so I decided to lay them at 1.08 with £1000 giving me a £80 liablity on the game. Surely I should be backing them?
My strategy here is simple, by laying China I was committing very little of bank and if they scored an early goal I was confident that I could trade out at 1.04 for just under a £40 loss on China. Actually I was only risking £40 and not my £80 liability on a early China goal, but with £1000 sitting on the draw and a shock New Zealand goal it was worth the risk.
For my sins I actually watched the Brazil v New Zealand match and the minnows did extremely well despite losing 5-0. They were only 1-0 down at half-time and Brazil scored 3 late goals. So defensively they were pretty tight, they kept Denmark out until the second half in their other game in the group.
My exit strategy
I decide that I was going to leave my position open until half-time or China's price reached 1.28 on the exchange to leave me with a bet to nothing on China a possible profit of £200 if they went on to win the match. I was matched just before half-time at 1.28, so effectly I was in the same profit position as a punter who had risked £2500 at 1.08 before the kick-off, except I didn't have the 2.5k liability.
China's price when they scored.
China took the lead in the 57th minute from a free kick and when the Betfair market re-opened and established itself the price on a China win was 1.06 & 1.07, hardly any difference between the pre kick-off odds. So any punters who were looking to back China and lay them off after a goal would be disappointed at the price, as they were in almost the same position as they were before the game.
As a rule the price is quite high if the opening goal is scored in the second half, because you have plenty of punters who have backed China at the bigger price looking to secure a risk free profit.
In summary
By trading this way you are always on the right side of the market with the price moving in the direction you want it to, you won't always make a profit. However the upside far outways the downside and you have the opportunity to exit the market at any point before a goal and it will not cost you. I feel this is a sensible way to approach trading on Betfair.
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