It’s been an interesting betting week for me and I’m learning all the time. On the football front, I always love to get involved with Real Madrid in the Champions League. For one thing, there’ll be goals, plenty of incidents and some excellent personal performances (take a bow Casillas and Robinho). What I especially like about teams like Real Madrid is the trading aspect.

When the opposition is sufficiently poor, I like to back teams like Real, Barcelona, Man Utd and Arsenal to score first. I do this by backing them pre match and trading once a goal has been scored (hopefully and expectantly by them) The market reacts – the odds drop dramatically and you can engineer a successful trade by laying at odds lower than you backed. The great thing about this is that the rest of the game can be ignored. Yes, Real’s opponents mid week equalised, then it was 2-1, then 2-2 with 10 minutes to go.

Now this is where the in running market really comes into its own. Why? Well where else can you back an odds on shot at evens and over! That’s exactly what I did. I backed Real Madrid with 10 minutes to go and yes, they obliged with a quick goal, and then another to make the final score 4-2!

The same occurred yesterday with Bayern Munich 2 goals down away from home to Red Star who were very poor in their previous UEFA Cup appearances. Now Bayern Munich trading at 30+ - surely worth a cheeky tenner – even though there’s only a few minutes left – final score –3-2 to Bayern Munich. Personally I couldn’t believe it! IT requires a little faith in the quality teams discovering their will to win attitudes.

The lesson – if the opportunity’s there, speculate on the unpredictability of football. A possible example from this week would be Middlesbrough scoring first against Man Utd however unlikely that might be.

Can we take this backing at enhanced odds into horse racing? Well the in running markets are a whole different kettle of fish. They’re over in a flash. BUT, you can always submit unmatched bets in running on favourites in the hopes they will drift and then come back to win. This seems to be prevalent in AP McCoy ridden horses where he has an uncanny ability to lift horses over the line when all looked lost. Again, it’s the unpredictability we are seeking to exploit. I have seen horses win who traded at 50 in running. Surely putting a cheeky £2 bet on at 50, hoping it gets matched and the horse wins, in certain types of race, is an opportunity with no downside.

With my eye firmly on trading this week in the football, and horses, I have turned my attention to Betfair games. After all these are 24-hour games and if there is a system out there with potential then it must be exploited. There are no really worthwhile betting exchange books out there, and, from personal experience the key to these games is trading – again backing high and laying low. I’ve noticed this is really most prevalent in Texas hold em, BUT more so in baccarat. Why? Well, this is effectively a 2 horse race, with the tie of no real interest because if you’ve backed either the player of the banker and there is a tie, well you get your stakes back. It is with baccarat that I have concentrated and had some success. Here are some ingredients for success. Always take a green screen – ALWAYS! Look for sequences – what do I mean? Well if there have been 6-7 reds win on the trot, you can bet that this sequence will be broken very soon.

The system I am formulating (and have run with some success) includes trading, sequences. and specialist staking. Watch out soon on laytheodds.com as I’ll reveal all to you. It looks very promising, paying about £30 an hour to very very conservative sedentary stakes.

ANY NEW SYSTEMS THIS WEEK?

One system came to my attention this week and this is the Money Box, offered by SportsWorld Publishing, but having tested it the last 2 weeks, it in no way matches the hype! Terrible losing run of late. That’s not to say it won’t pick up. You must not draw conclusions too quickly and without looking at the time of the year ( the transition between the flat and jumps must be accounted for) .So hold out on this one, and as Public Enemy said – Don’t believe the HYPE!

Elsewhere, if you want free football tips, then try The Football Maestro - personally these tips are very obvious and hardly the work of a professional, with far too many short prices, but it’s free and you may get some guidance which may back up some of your own research (and I always advocate a DIY attitude – remember most people offering their tips are offering their opinions and expecting you to pay. What suddenly makes them an expert in a sport where information is freely available? – for a couple of pennies you’d do no worse than read Jeff Stelling’s tips in the Sun – he was spot on last weekend with a few correct scores – back his most compelling arguments as long as they mirror your own thoughts. Jeff Stelling is a walking football encyclopaedia, and being immersed in it as he is, his opinion (being free) is worthy of following rather than chancers who are just looking to get your cash from you)

thefootballmaestro.com is, I suspect, an email address-collecting device – so bear that in mind. What will happen here is they will collect your email address and then down the line bombard you with a number of “offers” from their buddies.
  
I hope you’ve been enjoying and benefiting from the back bets at http://www.laytheodds.com/blog blog. A good day yesterday, the purpose here is to show you a way of uncovering potential winners without the need to spend hours on end looking at form, but putting your faith in the racing post’s betting forecaster and Spotlight. Did you read the market mover article recently? You would, I hope, have concluded that the betting forecaster can be very accurate indeed in his synopsis – and remember he is wholly independent from the live betting market! This is where I base my backing system - the blog’s free – have a read, I think you’ll benefit from it!

Well, I’m off now – breeders cup is upon us this weekend. If you want some free advice, then check out www.sportinglife.com’s free micro site dedicated to the Breeders Cup, as well as www.attheraces.co.uk’s free micro site. I’m looking forward to it – come on the Dylan Thomas! Have a great weekend