When two teams are drawn together, home advantage is decided by which of them was at 'home' on the last occasion they met in the Davis Cup. So if Argentina were at home to Britain the last time they met - then this time it will be Britain's turn to be at home. And if were Britain were the home side the last time they met, then this time it will be Argentina that is at home.

This system takes no notice of when a team last met another - it could be last year or it could be 20 years ago - whoever was at home then will be 'away' next time.

Turf wars

And there's another huge 'clue' in the Davis Cup way of doing things - whichever side is at home has the choice of playing surface. While that mightn't mean much to the likes of you and me - it makes a huge difference to top professional players - some of whom play much, much, better on some surfaces than on others. For instance, some love the 'slow' clay courts - some detest them.

Watch out for drop-outs...

Clue number three is in identifying the players actually prepared to turn out and play for their country - for virtually no financial reward.

Many of the world's leading tennis pros - such as Nadal (Spain), Djokovic (Serbia) and Murray (GB) - are already making noises about the importance of their personal careers over possible Davis Cup commitments, so some high profile player withdrawals look on the cards this season.

Added to that, 2008 is an 'Olympic' year, so top tier performers have yet another shiny 'goodie' to aim at. And that puts the stamina-sapping Davis Cup - notorious for fermenting mental fatigue - under even more pressure. It's clear that something has got to give somewhere in the top players' list of priorities. And in some cases, that 'something' will be the Davis Cup.

So with the draw and home advantage clues being so important to the outcome of this contest - and possible player absences to bear in mind - let's investigate The Mysterious Affair Of The 2008 Davis Cup...

Plotting the route to the Final...

We've already had Round 1, when an Andy Murray-less Great Britain were predictably knocked out by Argentina - and it's Argentina that I want to talk about. The Argentineans go into the Davis Cup with a 'dream team' of super talents, and importantly, all of them are committed to playing in the competition.

World Number 10 David Nalbandian heads the list, then world number 14 Guillermo Canas, number 21 Juan Monaco (a superb player and vastly underrated), number 25 Juan Ignacio Chela, number 41 Agustin Calleri, number 50 Juan Martin del Potro and number 58 Jose Acasuso. A stunning array of tennis talent.

Clay would be their 'strongest' surface - the surface they will most certainly choose for their home ties - however they can also muster up a world class game on Carpet, Grass or Hardcourt so they have no reason to fear any away tie. There's no doubt about it, Argentina have a great draw too, and a place in the Semi Finals looks theirs for the taking - they only have to overcome Sweden on home soil in the forthcoming Quarter Finals.

These Quarter Finals will be played on clay with the sluggish Pro Penn Extra Duty ball making life even tougher for the Swedes, who would prefer something quicker.

To illustrate just how hard it is to beat Argentina in their own backyard, here's their home record stretching back to the turn of the millennium...

Date            Opponent          Score            Venue
Sep 2006     Australia            5-0               ARG
Feb 2006      Sweden             5-0               ARG
Mar 2005    Czech Rep          5-0               ARG
Apr 2003       Russia              5-0               ARG
Feb 2003     Germany            5-0               ARG
Apr 2002      Croatia              3-2               ARG
Feb 2002     Australia             5-0              ARG
Sep 2001      Belarus              5-0               ARG

An impressive set of home wins. As you can see, playing in Argentina - in Buenos Aires on clay - is one heck of a task, and the likes of established teams such as Russia, Germany, the Czech Republic and Croatia have all failed in the past. Sweden have a
huge mountain to climb.

The crunch match for Argentina comes in their potential Semi Final - against any one of Serbia, Russia, Belgium or the Czech Republic. But once again, if the form runs true, the Argentineans will have yet another home draw, against Russia.

I'll never underestimate the Russians in this event, but the fact that their star player Marat Safin is highly likely to miss the tie is a big blow. Given Argentina's home record - the South Americans have to be a very strong odds-on chance to win this tie.

In the Final, Argentina would most probably line up against either Germany, Spain, France or the USA. And yet again, the more fancied runners of that quartet - Spain and the USA - would face a daunting trip to Buenos Aries for what would be the most intimidating of Finals.

Argentina would be the favourite against both of these possible opponents - however the US will probably have to beat Spain in Spain (in front of 20,000+ highly vociferous fans, and on the Spanish team's favourite surface) to make it to the Final - and for that reason I'm siding with Spain to be facing Argentina for the Cup.

Back Argentina for the Davis Cup

Given that the Argentineans have the strongest team, that other countries are likely to face player withdrawals (we've already seen Murray duck out of a tie for Great Britain), that Argentina have the best draw, and the likely huge advantage of choosing their favourite playing surface throughout - they are a standout proposition to land the Davis Cup.

Odds of 15/8 (a fraction less than 2/1) are very reasonable - and I recommend that we help ourselves to a bet on Argentina.Case closed!

To find the Best Odds on Argentina to win the Davis Cup, click
here...

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk/tennis

While we're on the subject of tennis... Don't rule out Roger

I wrote recently about the lacklustre form of world number one Roger Federer, and about how he had been suffering from glandular fever. Roger said before playing in last week's Indian Wells Masters Tournament that he was feeling fine again - but that optimism wasn't borne out by his results.

Roger was beaten in the semi finals in Indian Wells by 98th in-the-world Mardy Fish. That was shocking enough - but just as stunning was that Fish was able to beat the Swiss maestro while getting less than 40 percent of his first serves on target!

That just isn't the Roger Federer we all know and respect - and there is no doubt that Roger is still suffering the after effects of the fever. Right now the bookies are knocking Federer's odds out for future events as though he were dead and buried. For instance Irish bookie Boylesports quote him at a massive 9/2 for the next Grand Slam event - the French Open in May - while Victor Chandler make him 4/1 for the same event.

Those odds could look a stupendous bargain in a few weeks from now if Roger gets back to full fitness - and I wouldn't discourage anyone from striking a small bet on him for the French Open at 4/1 and bigger...

*********

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Matt Nesbitt
www.SportsXtra.co.uk