Look out for key factors to cash-in on

First, let me say that you don't need to have played tennis, and you don't need to eat, drink and sleep it to make your betting pay handsomely. All you have to understand are the key factors that decide the winning and losing of a match.

And of all those key factors, none is more important than a player's serve.

If you know how the two players are going to serve, you will have a great chance of backing the winner of any match, and often at big odds. Here's the low-down on the biggest factor in tennis, and your key to money making.

The Serve

There is no substitute for a big, strong accurate serve. A good serve wins more points than any other shot. It wins games, sets and matches.

You can easily learn how to weigh up a player's serve.

After you have watched a match on TV, you will have a very good idea of the serving abilities of the two players. That's true even if it was the first game of tennis you'd ever watched. Or you can discover a player's past serve performances from the excellent tennis information site, http://www.atptennis.com/
 
Here are the main factors you should consider:

First Serves

Players are allowed two 'serves' per point played. The first one is very important, it's a free shot - the chance to score straight away, or to put the opponent onto the defensive. It's an advantage no player wants to throw away.

And how accurately a player is serving is easy to gauge. 'First Serve' statistics are produced for every match, they tell you how many of a player's first serves are called 'good' by officials. That is, that landed in the right area of the court, in the 'service box.'

Those serves that hit the net, those that reach the other side of the net but are called 'out,' and those that result in the player having to reach for a second service ball for any other reason, are not included in his 'first serve' figure.

Playing the percentages

This statistic is also known as the player's ‘First Serve Percentage,' and official tournament sites, and any stats that officials provide to the press, will often use this phrase.

So what would a good 'First Serve Percentage (FSP)' be?

That often depends on the player. For example, veteran star clay court man Juan Carlos Ferrero doesn’t have a massive serve, and you will certainly notice this while watching him play.

Ferrero’s First Serve Percentage can often be very high, he achieves 80% or more quite regularly. This is because his serves are not as fast as those of some other players, and therefore tend to be more accurate.

On the other hand, a really quick server like Andy Roddick, who throws 'bombs' down the court, would be happy with a FSP in the 70s.

How Effective Is That First Serve?

A player needs his first serve percentage to show a high level of accuracy, but it must also do some real damage to the opponent. The serve doesn't have to be an 'Ace,' (a serve that the other player cannot hit, and which wins the point for the server), but it should at least make the opponent work to return it.

Aces and Double Faults

Cheap points in this game are a godsend, that is, points earned without having to run and sweat for them. And there is no cheaper point than an Ace.

One thing to note, there will be other great service shots in the game that are not technically counted as Aces, but are actually as good as an Ace. The ones where the opponent gets some racket on the ball, but can't return it.

If you are watching the match live, include all of these 'nearly Ace' serves with the Aces. It will give you a more accurate picture of how the server was performing.

A Double Fault (two serving errors) can be a killer in this game. Surrendering a point to an opponent without making him work for it is bad news, especially when the score is 15-30 in his favour. Too many double faults would leave me questioning the player's overall service game or concentration.

Really big, fast servers often make a number of Double Faults and get away with them, it's the price they pay for putting all that aggression onto the ball. But as a rule of thumb, a player's Double Fault figure should never exceed ½ of his Ace count.

So if a player has 10 Aces to his credit in a match, you do not want him to have more than 5 Double Faults. If he has, then be very careful about backing him in his next contest.

The Second Serve

Second serves will be much slower than the first, with the player trying to ensure that it's 'good' and accurate.

Sometimes a second serve will be 40 kilometres an hour slower than the first. That's understandable, but the important thing is that this shot 'does' something good on the bounce.

Making the ball ‘kick’ or ‘spin’ viciously is the intention, and you’ll soon see who’s hot and who’s not in this category.

A good pointer to how difficult a second serve is to play, is to look out for the unforced errors it creates (when the opponent hits it 'out' or fails to get it back over the net).

By knowing how the two players match up in the most important service categories (First, Second, Ace/ Double Fault), you will have a very strong idea about who will win the match.

Turning it into Money

As I said earlier, facts and figures on player's serves can be found on http://www.atptennis.com.

Or if you are watching a match on TV, simply take a mental note of what your eyes tell you, or even better, log your observations during the match.

How complex you make these notes is your decision. You can either ‘score’ every area by counting first serves, Aces and Double Faults, together with written notes that describe the effectiveness of the first and second service…

Or you can simply jot down a few lines that describe the players serving performance. Either way you will have an accurate opinion based on the biggest shot in the game… the serve.

The best betting opportunities arrive when a player with previously moderate performances meets a player you believe will serve well.

This sort of match-up will earn you consistent profits, and with three of this year’s four Grand Slam tournaments to come – all live on TV - and Sky Sports showing all of the TMS events (Tennis Masters Series) live, there will be plenty of betting on EVERY match worthy of note, plus the chance to watch them yourself.

A note on form…

I believe you will find that there is no better form in tennis than current form. Players hit hot streaks that are often followed by cold ones. You should always be looking for the player with the best CURRENT serving form.

And the 'serve factor' will help you whatever the match. There are short-priced players who are well worth a banker bet, and very good servers who are unjustified outsiders - the 'serve factor' will help you find them.

Best servers - This is no ‘news,’ as these two men are at the top of their profession – but Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are my idea of the sport’s best servers.

Dark horses – Here are three players with terrific serves, but who don’t always start odds-on to win their matches by any means…

Tomas Berdych
Robin Soderling
Mario Ancic

If you are serious about making profits from tennis – then this is just the time of year to get serious about it, with the clay court season just about to move into top gear.

Watch out for those serves!

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From an ‘odd’ comparison…

Something that’s been going round in my mind following the Champions League matches last night…

Ladbrokes were betting on which team would ‘kick off’ in the Roma v Manchester United game, pricing it like this:

Roma 21-20 v Manchester United 19-20

I just wonder what made United the 19-20 favourites!

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…to an Odds Comparison

You can get all the very latest odds for Tennis, Champions League and all other sports via the Sports Xtra website…

www.sportsxtra.co.uk

Not only can you read three year’s worth of betting advice – over 150 articles – all easily searchable by sport.

But click on the Best Odds button and you’ll find a dedicated Odds Comparison page – providing the best odds for all events, across all the major bookmakers.

To check it out right now, click here…

http://odds.sportsxtra.co.uk

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Until next time,

Matt Nesbitt