Cashing-in on silly season

Every year when we reach the 'business end' of the season,
strange things start to happen. Teams chasing titles can suddenly start getting
nervous and start shedding points they'd normally mop up...

In recent weeks we've seen Chelsea and Manchester United both do it...
same story with MK Dons and Peterborough in League Two... League One
Champions Swansea have stumbled and stuttered over the
line - winning just 3 of their last 11 matches... And nobody wants to
win the Championship!

Then, at the opposite end of divisions, teams threatened by the
drop suddenly start over-performing...

Bolton and Fulham have both won away from home this month (the last
time Fulham achieved that, Jimmy Hill was a young man and Al Fayed was
still on Prince Phillip's Christmas Card list...).

Bournemouth too have dramatically rescued their League One status winning
all 5 of their last 5 matches!

None of this makes things easy for the punter. But there are some
things to be aware of, which can give us a helping hand. And one of
them is a team's agenda...

Holiday Bookings

While we know that striving to win titles and play-off places, or 
scrapping to avoid the drop can affect teams' performances. So too
can the lack of anything to play for. With no chance of winning
anything and no chance of being relegated, some will inevitably be
less motivated.

This can have a dramatic effect on Bookings Points totals in
particular. After all, players are human beings - and are far less likely
to go flying into 50/50 tackles when they are starting to think about
their holidays...

Just take last weekend's Premier League fixtures as an example...

* 8 out of the 10 matches produced Under 35 Booking Points

(And the 2 that went 'over' were down to Hermann Hreidarsson's
sending off at Man City, and Sunderland's four-star, four-card 2nd
half performance at Newcastle. No doubt after a 'motivational' half
time chat from Roy Keane).

But even so - an 80% betting trend is one to take note of in my book!

Dead-zone dead certs

I highlighted a few 'dead zone' games a few weeks ago - that is, those
matches between two teams that have nothing to play for. With a
view to going 'low' in Booking Points markets.

And there looks to be another couple of stand-out opportunities this
weekend...

West Ham United v Newcastle United (3pm Saturday)
 
                                     Booking Points Ratings
Team                            For          Against         Total
West Ham (Home)       11.7            41.7           53.3
Newcastle (Away)       10.0            15.0            25.0
Ref: U. Rennie 
Ave Pts per game: 20.0
 
This looks a likely low Booking Points make-up. Neither team is
striving, nor threatened. Both attract very low 'For' figures - roughly
1 Yellow Card per game, with Newcastle's 'Against' figures being
very low too.

Plus, in Uriah Rennie you have the ideal 'low' Ref officiating. Not
many run outs for Uriah this term, but he is notoriously reluctant
to dip into his pocket - setting up a classic low Booking Points
match-up.

Everton v Aston Villa (4pm Sunday) 
 
                                          Booking Points Rating
Team                                 For       Against       Total
Everton (Home)                 3.3         3.3             6.7
Aston Villa (Away)           19.0       21.0           40.0
Ref: P. Dowd 
Ave Pts per game: 38.33
 
Another handy looking 'low' betting opportunity. Both teams are
reaching for European places, but taking into account Everton's
extraordinary Home match data - they have averaged less than 1
Yellow Card all season! - this doesn't look like being a tear-up.

Villa's Away stats are middling, but Martin O'Neill's teams play the
right way and never backchat officials. So even with one of
the League's fussiest Refs in charge (38.33 Booking Points per
game), it looks like another 'love-in' at Goodison.

Note: If you'd like to know where you can access these kinds of
statistics FREE until the end of the season, click here
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throughout the summer covering a range of sports, including Euro2008.

Other matches that might be worthy of interest this weekend...

Portsmouth v Blackburn Rovers (1.30pm Sunday) 

With nothing really at stake and a Cup Final on the horizon for Pompey
this could go low - especially if the bookies set their line based on
Blackburn's combative reputation.

Chelsea v Manchester United (12.45 Saturday)

Potentially a massive match in terms of the destination of the Premier
League title, but with both teams in the midst of finely balanced Champions
League semi-finals they could be more respect on show than usual.

Use Bookings and Corners statistics for 'shock proof' bets

Getting hold of the right statistics can make a massive difference
to your betting confidence - and profits! - especially on markets
like Booking Points and Corners. And the great thing about these
markets is, they are less-prone to upsets than a lot of football
bets.

Teams lose or draw matches they should've won every weekend -
anybody that has ever placed an Accumulator can testify to that!

Players miss sitters... keepers make miracle saves... officials
make bad decisions... But the style or 'character' of a team rarely
changes.

Certain teams will win a lot of Corners because of the way they
play... other teams won't. Other teams will rack up a lot of
Bookings because of the way they play... others won't.

And knowing the difference can provide 'shock proof' bets, week
after week.

After all, if you knew something happened 8 times out of 10, you'd
bet on it wouldn't you?

Take the Champions League 1st legs this week...

How many punters were undone by Riise's 50-pence shaped head, or
Ronaldo's penalty shank..?

Members of my www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk service certainly were!

Password: ronaldo7 - have a look on me ;-)

This week's advice included Liverpool to win @ 11/8 and Ronaldo at
Anytime @ 15/8. 

Frustrating, but these things will always happen.
 
However, when it comes to my Bookings and Corners tips - a clean
sweep...

* Liverpool Most Corners
* Under 50 Booking Points
* Barcelona Most Corners
* Barcelona -1 Corner Handicap
* Under 40 Booking Points

All based on solid statistical data. 

2 matches, 5 bets, 80-points profit!

Last weekend my Sports Statistician readers were celebrating a
staggering 80-points profit, purely from Corners bets...

First up, AC Milan v Reggina.
* Over 10 Corners - there were 19
* Reggina (+4) Corner handicap - the make-up was 9/10
* X-Corners 'Buy' at 26 - the make-up was 90

Then, Burton Albion v Stevenage.

* Burton (-2) Corner handicap - the make-up was 10/4
* Multi-Corners 'Buy' at 10 - the make-up was 25

If you'd like to trial these stats FREE for the rest of the season,
click here...

http://www.shopatoxonpress.com/TSS58

Until next time,
Matt Nesbitt