If you bet on the game ‘in running’ (that is, as the game is
actually being played) on Betfair or on one of the other betting
exchanges, it isn't difficult to create a ‘win only – no lose’
situation.

There are lots of ways you could do this, but the particular
method I’d like to talk about today is known as… Lay The
Leader.

Lay The Leader

The concept has nothing to do with Gary Glitter, thankfully.
What weare talking about is ‘Laying’ (i.e. playing the bookie
and accepting a bet)on the team that takes the lead in an event,
and then 'bet the selection back' when the opposition level the
score.

Here’s an example...

Say, middle-of-the-table Middlesbrough took the lead against
top-of-the-table Manchester United in a match. You might well
find thatthe Boro's price would be cut to 2.0 (Evens) 'in running'
from the previous4.0 (3/1) chance.

However, after Manchester United had netted an equaliser, the
odds would swing back the other way.

So if you'd Laid Middlesbrough at 2.0 (Evens), you would now
have the oppotunity to BACK them to win - that is 'bet them back' -
at odds of 4.0 (3/1).

It works like this...

First you Lay...

Suppose you had Laid (i.e. accepted a bet of) Middlesbrough for
£100 at 2.0 when they took the lead, you would have had the
following ‘book’ on the game:

Middlesbrough win: minus £100
Draw:  +£100
Manchester United win: +£100

(You have ‘Laid’ Middlesboro for £100, so you win that much if
they DON’T win the match. You Laid them at odds of 2.0, meaning
if Middlesboro DO win the match, you pay out 2.0 x the £100 you
have accepted the bet on. This is a loss to you of £100).

...then you Back

You can now go a step further and put yourself in a position where
you cannot make a loss...

When Manchester United equalised, you could then have struck a
bet at the 3.50 (5.2) which became available on Middlesbrough to
winthe match.

You could have biased your book towards the ‘best’ side, Man
United, by having £28.58 on at the 3.50 (5/2) leaving you with the
following book…

Middlesbrough win:  Level
Draw:  +£71.42
Man United win: +£71.42

(If Middlesbrough win, you lose £100 from your ‘Lay’ at 2.0. But
win £100 from a £28.58 stake at 3.50 (5/2) – coming out level.
If the match is a Draw or Man United win, you win the £100 from
the ‘Lay’ and lose the £28.58 on the Middlesbrough win at 3.50
– an overall profit of £71.42).

How to guarantee a PROFIT – win, lose, or draw...

It's all about adjusting your stake…

In this scenario, you could have made a profit all ways by increasing
your stake to £50 on Middlesbrough at 3.50 (5/2), which would have
left you with the following situation…

Middlesbrough win: +£75
Draw: +£50
Manchester United: +£50

(If Middlesbrough win you lose £100 from the ‘Lay’ at 2.0, but
win £175 from a £50 stake at 3.50 – coming out £75 up. If the
match is a draw or Man United win, you win the £100 from the
‘Lay’

and lose the £50 on the Middlesbrough win at 3.50 – an
overall profit of £50).

Either way you could have put yourself in line for a handsome
profit.

The whole thrust of this method is to make money by laying poor
value favourites, and I certainly couldn't argue with that. But trust
the evidence of your own eyes, there are times when the team in
front deserves to be there - so be selective about who you
oppose.

National Wealth Warning

And now, a few words about how you can protect yourself from
some rather unsubtle Betfair con men… How to guard yourself
against the ‘1.01 club’.

Wherever money changes hands - there are people out there who
will try to trip you up and rip you off.

There is a sub-species of these on Betfair, and they are lying in wait
for a punter to click the wrong button. The pay off is that the careless
backer ends up saddling him or herself with a ridiculous wager -
possibly taking 1/100 (1.01 – the lowest possible odds on Betfair)
about a selection that should have been far, far bigger price.

These parasites don’t just stick at offering 1.01 (that’s just the
name these kind hearted fellows have been given) …they’ll offer
any price that is far shorter than an outcome's real quote, just as
long as they are still well within the realms of a stupidly short
price.

There’s no point in going into just how it all works, but there is
every point in outlining how you can avoid such trip wires...

Always double-check your bets

That's right...

Double-check your bets

To place either a ‘Lay’ request or a ‘Back’ request, or to accept a
Lay or a Back offer you will need to agree to a couple of
verification questions before Betfair process the transaction.
These questions basically indicate the total liability of your
intended bet, and the potential profit of your intended bet… you
should read these figures very carefully EVERY time you place a
bet.

For example:

Let’s say you wanted to Back Manchester United at 1.80 to win
against Chelsea in the Champions League final, for £10.

On Betfair, you would select the blue ‘Back’ option for Man
United at 1.80, then enter your stake of £10 on the bet slip area
on the right of the screen. This displays ‘Your Odds’ (1.80),
‘Your Stake’ (£10), and ‘Your Profit’ – the amount you win if
Arsenal win.

After clicking ‘Submit’ Betfair will then tell you how much you
stand to win (profit) or lose (liability) for each of the possible
outcomes – in this case an Arsenal win, a draw, or a Middlesbrough
win. Betfair then asks you if you want to place this bet. ONLY click
‘Yes’ if you are sure the bet on the screen is the bet you want to
be placing.

If you do this you will never make a mistake, and you will never
saddle yourself with a bet that is a far shorter price than it should
be.

Don’t think that checking Betfair's verification slip is a waste of
time because ‘you’ would never make such a mistake, even the
shrewdest of punters have been caught out in the past when skipping
the verification process, in some cases losing a significant stake.

FACT! In a recent live football match, when the market was ‘in-play,'
one punter had over £500 on a team at 1.05 when their proper price
should have been 4.50. So instead of a potential profit of £1750 on
this selection, he found himself with a potential win of just £25.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that Betfair trading is dangerous.
Let's say it's a bit like crossing the road - dead easy. But the moment
you stop watching what you're doing, you're in trouble.

Until next time,

Matt Nesbitt
Sports Xtra

P.S. If you want to get Sports Xtra free, every Wednesday, sign-up
atGuarantee Profits by Betting In-running on Football…
Now – here’s a way to improve your football enjoyment, and
profits.