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Group D - Spanish step into the realm of serious contenders
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Simon Barlow
Simon Barlow is a freelance football writer and commentator. He began broadcasting for TEAMtalk in 1997 and was part of the launch of the UK’s biggest independent football website a year later. As a Manchester United fan since childhood, he was delighted to be made that club’s TEAMtalk editor, before joining ProZone in 2002. After four years as a football statistician, he returned to broadcasting in 2006 and currently blogs on football and NFL. 
By Simon Barlow
Published on 05/28/2008
 
Simon Barlow believes no-one can touch Spain in Group D, but will this be the year where they finally lay their ghosts of the past ?


Spain have 44 years of hurt to repair at Euro 2008 but finally they have the squad - and draw - to mount a serious bid for glory.

Of course, this has all been said before - they were fancied in the European Championships betting in 1996, 2000 and 2004 - and never even reached the tournament semi-finals.

But Luis Aragones has done his best at fostering a club atmosphere in the Spanish squad which has been riven with club-rivalry divisions in the past.

And the 'Wise Man' now presides over the most creative midfield and potent attacking forces in the tournament - backed up by one of the top three goalkeepers in the world.

At the very highest level, possession of the football is key to success and I expect Spain to dominate that area of the game more than any other nation at Euro 2008.

Xavi Alonso, Andres Iniesta, Xavi and Cesc Fabregas can control matches in the middle and supply good passes to the lively strikers - David Villa and Fernando Torres.

Spain open their campaign with the Group D clash against Russia in Innsbruck and I expect them to get off to a flying start.

Guus Hiddink's side will be without suspended playmaker Andrei Arshavin and will probably pack the midfield in order to protect their vulnerable central defenders - playing off their big front player when they can win back the ball.

Spain will be patient and should have enough ability to create a couple of chances in the game and take the three points.

Next up Greece face Sweden in a match which neither side can afford to lose. The holders have defenders with the strength to keep Ibrahimovic and Allback at bay while Basinas and co ought to be able to hold the fort in midfield against an experienced Swedish engine room - a draw.

Sweden and Spain know all about each other from qualifying where home advantage was key in both games. When they meet in Innsbruck in match three of Group D it is likely that it will take something special to break the deadlock. The Spanish have more special players than their opponents and on the balance of evidence should win to take their tally of points to six from two games.

The pivotal match of the group pits Otto Rehagel's Greece against Russia and the onus ought to be on the holders to make the game because their last match is against Spain.

However, Rehagel may fear the Russian counter-attack and initiate a cat and mouse game in the hope that Spain don't turn up to the decider because they are through. Hiddink won't complain and this could be one of the dullest matches in the tournament - a tight affair with few chances and no goals.

So, as all four teams go into the final matches, Spain will be plotting their route to the final as leaders on six points, Greece will have two points and the other two sides only a point apiece.

Aragones is no mug and will surely rest all of his first-choice eleven for the meaningless clash with Greece. But he will still want to win the game and will look for his understudies to pressure their leading lights. Greece are not built to chase matches and could struggle against dogged opponents.

So I expect them to fail in their quest for three points here - which opens a path to the quarter-finals for both Russia and Sweden. Hiddink can welcome back a fresh Arshavin for this must-win match and his presence, possibly more than his individual contribution, can win the game for Russia.

Sweden just don't have enough to steer a path through the group and with an out of form Ibrahimovic, won't pose enough threat, while Greece can only blame themselves as they board the plane home - having never shown the belief or ambition usually associated with the defending champions.


Written by Simon Barlow, a professional sports writer who blogs about football betting and Premiership betting at Betfair.