England’s series with South Africa begins at Lord’s on Thursday. With the second Test a back-to-back affair starting at Headingly on Friday 18th, a good start to the series is crucial.

South Africa have won all three of their trips to Lord’s since their readmission, although the sensible money would appear to be on a draw. The last five matches at headquarters have been rain-affected stalemates and with more showers forecast, punters might see another as the value bet.

It is often said that touring teams produce their best performances at Lord’s, and this is certainly true of the Proteas – only Australia have a better record there.

South Africa have been steadily improving under Micky Arthur and have been impressive tourists recently, winning series in Pakistan and Bangladesh and drawing in India.

Their battery of fast bowlers will be even more potent than they were on the subcontinent and should enjoy facing a host batting line-up that struggled against New Zealand on bowler-friendly surfaces earlier in the summer.

Only Andrew Strauss had the patience to consistently prosper in seaming conditions and the opener could be a key man for England, as he was in the team’s last meeting in 2004/05, when he scored 656 runs at an average of 72.88.

Strauss loves Lord’s, hitting 915 runs from 15 innings there, and it will be a battle with Michael Vaughan in the race to become the fifth man to score 1,000 runs at headquarters. England’s skipper averages 57.17 from 18 innings and is just 28 runs short of the landmark.

Successful bowlers at Lord’s harness the famous slope, so pacemen with experience at the ground might be the ones to look out for. Jacques Kallis took five wickets at 6.4 on his only previous appearance, whilst James Anderson has 19 victims from four matches. Makhaya Ntini took 10 wickets in South Africa’s innings victory in 2003.

That trouncing was achieved on the back of inserting England and Lord’s remains one of the few win the toss and field grounds: 12 of the last 10 toss winners have opted to bowl first.

This is largely because of the conducive swing conditions that are on offer in early season Lord’s matches and the weather will again have an impact on this decision on Thursday morning, as the pitch is a good one that has runs in it.

A fascinating duel between bat and ball awaits and I expect the tourists’ deeper batting strength to be the main reason for another South Africa win at Lord’s.



Written by Philip Oliver, a professional sports writer who blogs about cricket betting at the online sports betting blog from Betfair.