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England v South Africa second Test preview
http://www.laytheodds.com/articles/556/1/England-v-South-Africa-second-Test-preview.html
Philip Oliver
Philip Oliver is an independent sports writer who specialises in football and cricket. He has been writing betting previews, market analysis and opinion pieces for Betfair since 2006, covering a wide range of club and country events such as English domestic cricket and football, the Ashes, cricket World Cup, Champions League and UEFA Cup, Copa América, European Leagues and international football. 
By Philip Oliver
Published on 07/16/2008
 
Phil Oliver looks forward to the second Test between England and South Africa and expects batsmen to maintain the upper hand.

The Lord’s pitch was the only winner in the first Test and the series now moves on to the other English ground that has a record of confusing captains. Headingley is known to give both bowlers and batsmen a chance, but the toss winner will surely not repeat the mistake made by Graeme Smith at headquarters by choosing to field first.

Five of the last six toss-winning captains have batted first and each have gone on to win, apart from Adam Gilchrist in 2001, whose generous second innings declaration resulted in defeat, despite Australia making 447 in their first innings.

The first innings totals in the five matches since that surprise England win have been 628 for eight, 342, 409, 515 and 570 for seven. The toss-winner will surely ignore any green in the wicket and grey in the sky by making first use with the bat.

I expected this series to be dominated by bat rather than ball and everything we saw at Lord’s suggests this will continue to be the case. Each of the six centurions looked totally at ease against the opposing bowling attack, which wasn’t just due to the featherbed wicket.

South Africa’s much-vaunted pace attack was disappointing and I expect them to continue to struggle find the right length at Leeds. Makhaya Ntini was particularly disappointing, so Andre Nel might come into the reckoning, although the unthreatening spin of Paul Harris might be sacrificed instead.

England must of course work out how to accommodate Andrew Flintoff, with Paul Collingwood likely to be the man to make way. Doubts over Flintoff’s batting form will be countered not so much by the desire to protect him in a five man attack, but more by the need for greater variation.

South Africa negotiated the final two days at Lord’s with ease and England’s selectors are aware of the tourist batsmen’s ability to play long innings. Flintoff’s pace and aggression will be crucial in the quest to remove Smith and co. from the comfort zone they enjoyed in the first Test.

Flintoff is available at 6.4 to be England’s top series wicket taker, which looks decent value considering the struggles of his team mates.

Ian Bell and Kevin Pietersen have a head start in the batting market, but I wouldn’t rule out any of England’s top five. Andrew Strauss should prove the most consistent and at 9.6 might be worth an investment.

There have only been two draws at Headingley since 1980 and it is hard to believe that this clash will end in stalemate, despite the apparent superiority of bat over ball. England are available at a tasty 4.1 and are my selection to edge ahead in the series.



Written by Philip Oliver, a professional sports writer who blogs about cricket betting at the online sports betting blog from Betfair.