I have just had my ‘Nasser Hussain at Brisbane’ moment. As soon as Graeme Smith won the toss at Headingley and bowled, I knew my prediction that a fielding decision would be a mistake would come back to haunt me. My tip for an England win also looked instantly wide of the mark.

However, I do feel let down by the home side. They say look up at Headingley, not down, and Smith was not alone in following this advice. England’s batsmen convinced themselves that the grey skies meant they were batting in trickier conditions than were actually in evidence.

This paranoia manifested itself in a panicked display of loose strokeplay, with Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Andrew Flintoff and Stuart Broad all falling to unnecessarily attacking shots. Nine players were out caught, which reflects England’s failings more than it does South Africa’s skill with the ball.

Indeed, the Protea pacemen were still off target, as they were at Lord’s, although their radars were fixed by the second innings at Leeds and they should hit the ground running at Edgbaston. The current difference between the teams is in the batting.

There is a massive gulf in application and shot selection. It is ironic that big runs banker Jacques Kallis is the only man out of form, although his resistance at the crease and refusal to sell his wicket cheaply has clearly rubbed off on Neil McKenzie, Hashim Amla and Ashwell Prince. England’s openers are the only home batsman to show a similar desire to play each ball on its merits.

England’s issue is therefore poor performance, not poor selection. The promotion of Tim Ambrose to accommodate Flintoff in a five man attack was strange – especially as the big allrounder was hardly protected, bowling at least 10 more overs than Darren Pattinson, Stuart Broad and Monty Panesar – but the emphasis must be on improving the batsmen’s output.

Wholesale changes will not be made, and nor should they be. Ryan Sidebottom will return if fit, preferably with his old zip and swing, and Ambrose and Flintoff should swap places. The latter is still a better bet for significant runs, as is Broad, who will retain his place on weight of runs, not wickets.

I will not be making any rash toss predictions yet, but I retain a nagging belief that England can provide value in this series.