Bookie Bashing - Bookmaker Free Bets

Option 2

Using the free £20 bet, Henman is backed to win at odds of 7.0. The profit on this bet, should Henman win, is £120. If Henman loses, the liability is £20. Roddick should then be backed to win, with a different bookie or on an exchange, up to a liability of £120. Why? Because, if Henman wins, £120 would be won from the first bet to offset the losses incurred on the second bet. If Henman loses, £20 would be lost on the first (free) bet but the second bet would win. Therefore, regardless of whether or not Henman wins, the bet is won.

Let’s suppose that a profit of £5 is to be made, regardless of who wins the match.

The liability on the win bet on Rodick must not exceed £120 (the potential win on Henman from the first bet) minus £5 (profit) = £115. £115 should therefore be placed on Roddick to win at odds of 1.35 with a second bookie or on an exchange. If Roddick loses, the liability is £115.00. If Roddick wins, £40.25 minus £2.02 (assuming 5% commission on winning bets) would be won. The table below summarises the two possible outcomes of the match and the profit:

From the above table, it can be seen that if Henman wins, £5.00 is won. If Henman loses, £40.25 would be won but the £20 free bet would be lost.

Option 3

Using the free £20 bet, back Roddick to win at odds of 1.25. The profit on this bet, should Roddick win, is £5. If Roddick loses, the liability is £20. Roddick should then be layed to lose on a betting exchange up to a liability of £5. Why? Because, if Roddick wins, the £5 from the first bet would be used to offset the losses incurred on the second bet. If Roddick loses, the £20 free bet would be lost but the second bet would win. Therefore, regardless of whether Roddick wins or not, the bet is won.

Let’s suppose that a £5 profit is to be made, regardless of who wins the match.

The liability on the bet on Rodick must not exceed £5 (the potential win on Roddick from the first bet) minus the £5 profit. This equates to a zero bet, which is not possible. The best that can be achieve is to place a minimum bet of £2. At lay odds of 1.35, the bet must not exceed £14.29 (5/(1.35 - 1.0) if a break even situation is to be realised. The maximum profit is therefore derived by laying Roddick to lose at odds of 1.35 on an exchange. With a stake of £14.29, the liability is £5.00 if Roddick wins. If Roddick loses, £14.29 minus £0.72 (assuming 5% commission on winning bets) would be won. The tables below summarise the two possible outcomes of the match and the profit:

From the above tables, it can be seen that the desired minimum £5 win, regardless of the outcome of the match, cannot be achieved.

In the first example, if Rodick wins, a break-even situation is achieved on the bet. If Roddick loses, £13.75 would be won.

In the second example, if Rodick wins, £4.30 would be won. If Roddick loses, £1.95 would be on.

Option 4

Using the free £20 bet, back Roddick to win at odds of 1.25. The profit on the bet, should Roddick win, is £5. If Roddick loses, the liability is £20. Henman should then be backed to win at a different bookies, up to a liability of £5. Why? Because, if Roddick wins, £5 would be won on the first bet and used to offset the loss incurred on the second bet. If Roddick loses, the £20 free bet would be lost but the second bet would win. Therefore, regardless of whether Roddick wins or not, the bet would be won.

Let’s suppose that a £5 profit is to be made, regardless of who wins the match.

The liability on the bet on Henman must not exceed £5 (the potential win on Roddick from the first bet) minus the £5 profit. This equates to a zero bet, which isn’t possible. The best that you can achieve is to place a minimum bet of £2 on Henman to win at odds of 8.00. If Henman wins, £14 minus £0.70 (assuming 5% commission on winning bets) would be won. The tables below summarise the two possible outcomes of the match and the profit:

In the first example, if Rodick wins, a break-even situation results. If Roddick loses, £33.25 would be won.

In the second example, if Rodick wins, £3.00 would be won. If Roddick loses, £13.30 would be won.

From the above tables, it can be seen that the desired minimum £5 win, regardless of the outcome of the match, cannot be achieved.

The above principles can be applied to any situation where there are only two possible outcomes of an event i.e. one player or team wins and the other player/team loses. These principles cannot be applied where a draw is a possible outcome.

Example 2.

Now let’s take a look at horse racing.

Suppose that a bet is placed on the 3:30 at Sandown Park in which a horse called ‘Bash the Bookie’ runs. The odds on Bash the Bookie winning the race with the bookie that has offered a free £20 bet are 4.5.

The best available odds to back Bash the Bookie to win on the exchanges and with other bookies is 4.5 and the best available odds to lay it to lose is 4.6.

Using the free £20 bet, back Bash the Bookie to win at odds of 4.5. The profit on the bet, should Bash the Bookie win, is £70. If Bash the Bookie loses, the liability is £20. Bash the Bookie should then be layed to lose with a betting exchange up to a liability of £70. Why? Because, if Bash the Bookie wins, £70 would be won on the first bet and used to offset the losses incurred on the second bet. If Bash the Bookie loses, the £20 free bet would be lost but the second bet would win. Therefore, regardless of the race outcome, the bet would be won.

Let’s suppose a £5 is to be made, regardless of who wins the race.

The liability on the lay bet on Bash the Bookie must not exceed £70 (the potential win on the first bet) minus £5 (profit). At lay odds of 4.6, the bet must not exceed £18.05 (65/(4.6 - 1.0). If Bash the Bookie is layed to lose at odds of 4.6 on an exchange and the stake is £18.05, the liability is £64.98 if Bash the Bookie wins and £18.05 minus £0.91 (assuming 5% commission on winning bets) would be won if it loses.

The table below summarises the two possible outcomes of the race, from Bash the Bookie’s point of view, and the profit:

From the above table, it can be seen that if Bash the Bookie wins, £5.02 would be won. If Bash the Bookie loses, £17.14 would be won but the £20 free bet would be lost.

So, we have seen how a win-win situation can be achieved. But are things that simple? Well, yes and no. There’s just one other thing that you need to understand before you venture forth and pick up your free money - the bookie’s terms and conditions, or Ts & Cs.