So, there I was, yesterday, minding my own business. As one does. I then wondered how often a horse, whose SP is 100/1, really wins. This only serves to confirm that I really am a sad old git.
Anyway, I know of a web site where answers to such questions can be found. So off I went.
Easy peasy. A few ticks here, a few clicks of the mose there and, hey presto (whatever that means) we had our answer.
22,131 horses have started their races in the UK at odds of 100/1 since the start of 1999. Of these, only 53 have won.
Ba**ards, I thought. Am I allowed to say that word on here? Probably not!
The reason for this sad old git's outburst is that the bookies of this world have a lot to answer for. A very large lot.
Look. If a horse is quoted at 100/1, then, if the odds are a fair reflection of its chances of winning, then, by definition, it should win 1 race in 101 races.
Therefore, if 22,131 horses have started their races at 100/1, then, 219 of them should have won. Instead, only 53 have actually won.
What does this mean?
It means that a horse whose odds are quoted as 100/1 actually has a 2 in 1,000 chance of winning or 1 in 500. Therefore, when a bookie quotes a horse's odds as being 100/1, it should actually be about 500/1.
Therefore, if you were to back 500 horses to win at odds of 100/1, on average, you will win only once and the bookie will win 499 times. That's why you never see a poor bookie. Bas***ds.
This explains something else.
People always complain about the high lay prices on the betting exchanges. Their complaint is that they are high compared to SP. Well, now you know why. Betting exchange prices more fairly reflect the horse's actual chances of winning - which bookie prices don't.
Basically, if you can lay a horse, whose SP is 100/1, on a betting exchange and the lay odds are less than 500/1, lay it. You are getting a good deal!
That's my rant for the day.
More soon.
Psycho
