1 reply to this topic

[gordon]

Hi,

I'm using the £20/20Day Bet Angel Pro Trial.

I am focusing on the "tick or two" trading on the horses.

I have tried the Australian races but there is a major lack of liquidity.

I have tried the US races and they are better than the Aussi's but not a lot.

I have tried the hounds but the prices seem like a butterfly who has taken
ecstacy in an attempt to cure the hiccups!

The UK races seem to have so much liqidity that the prices move very little
but there are opportunities if I could only spot them early enough, which is
where I believe the Charts in Bet Angel can help.

The problem I have is how to best set the percentages in the settings.

Please tell me if I am wrong in what follows.

As I see it, the two centre columns on Betfair is where all the action is.
That means that they have the most influence on the price changing.

The two middle columns are people waiting in the wings to be matched as well
as some who are trying to spoof the market. The influence these columns have
on the actual weight of money, in my view, should either be discounted -
possibly eliminated completely

The outside columns really aren't seriously interested in much else other than
spoofing the market, or trading if the market moves in their direction. I feel
that including these outer colums in WOM calculations doesn't make sense.

In the settings in Bet Angel Pro, the "weighting" (influence) precentage for
each column can be adjusted to change the reading in the LWOM chart. The
settings I found when I first intalled Bet Angel, were

Inner 34%
Middle 33%
Outer 33%

This means that each column has equal influence on the WOM and I feel that
this is not much help in predicting the direction of price movement.

I have tried changing the percentages in the settings is several ways. Here
are a couple of examples:

The first one is based on the inner haveing twice as much influence as the
middle, which in turn has twice as much influence as the outer.

Inner 57%
Middle 29%
Outer 14%

Another example is based on the 3 - 2 - 1 scaling. The inner has 3 times
as much influence as the outer and the middle has twice as much influence
as the outer.

Inner 50%
Middle 33%
Outer 17%

I hope I make some sense.

My question is, "Has anyone managed to establish a set of percentages which
shows the chart predicting the likely price move, at least reasonably
acurately and would you be prepared to share your findings?"

Thanks,

Gordon

[top mug]

Gordon,

It's really down to you which settings to use, depending on your time-frame of trading.
You're absolutely right that generally the 1st column has much more importance than the outer.
I've used 50-30-20 with varying success. But possibly the best gauge is just to follow the market.
Theres always going to be support and resistance between say 3.0 and 3.5 or 2.5 and 3.0. Look for these trading ranges (favourite not always best) within the original Betfair graph (pin it to your trading screen so as not to miss too much action) and ride the trend. No point only nicking a tick if you can have 6 or 7.
As for the dogs, US and AUS, forget them. That is to say unless the dogs are on Sky and theres more money about. I've found that unless theres at least three grand in the market, big unpredictable swings are highly likely.
I hope this helps a bit.

Zak

Hi,

I'm using the £20/20Day Bet Angel Pro Trial.

I am focusing on the "tick or two" trading on the horses.

I have tried the Australian races but there is a major lack of liquidity.

I have tried the US races and they are better than the Aussi's but not a lot.

I have tried the hounds but the prices seem like a butterfly who has taken
ecstacy in an attempt to cure the hiccups!

The UK races seem to have so much liqidity that the prices move very little
but there are opportunities if I could only spot them early enough, which is
where I believe the Charts in Bet Angel can help.

The problem I have is how to best set the percentages in the settings.

Please tell me if I am wrong in what follows.

As I see it, the two centre columns on Betfair is where all the action is.
That means that they have the most influence on the price changing.

The two middle columns are people waiting in the wings to be matched as well
as some who are trying to spoof the market. The influence these columns have
on the actual weight of money, in my view, should either be discounted -
possibly eliminated completely

The outside columns really aren't seriously interested in much else other than
spoofing the market, or trading if the market moves in their direction. I feel
that including these outer colums in WOM calculations doesn't make sense.

In the settings in Bet Angel Pro, the "weighting" (influence) precentage for
each column can be adjusted to change the reading in the LWOM chart. The
settings I found when I first intalled Bet Angel, were

Inner 34%
Middle 33%
Outer 33%

This means that each column has equal influence on the WOM and I feel that
this is not much help in predicting the direction of price movement.

I have tried changing the percentages in the settings is several ways. Here
are a couple of examples:

The first one is based on the inner haveing twice as much influence as the
middle, which in turn has twice as much influence as the outer.

Inner 57%
Middle 29%
Outer 14%

Another example is based on the 3 - 2 - 1 scaling. The inner has 3 times
as much influence as the outer and the middle has twice as much influence
as the outer.

Inner 50%
Middle 33%
Outer 17%

I hope I make some sense.

My question is, "Has anyone managed to establish a set of percentages which
shows the chart predicting the likely price move, at least reasonably
acurately and would you be prepared to share your findings?"

Thanks,

Gordon