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Low Liability Lays


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#1 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 12:10 PM

G'day!
Today I suggest laying;

2.00 Queen Of Cash
UPDATED RESULT. Finished 2nd BSP 1.44
2.30 Brand Bob
UPDATED RESULT. Finished 6th BSP 2.55

I have no idea whether my system is unique but I do know it's profitable in the short, medium and long term.

Have a great day and always keep your powder dry.

ST


#2 laytheodds

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 05:26 PM

G'day!
Today I suggest laying;

2.00 Queen Of Cash
UPDATED RESULT. Finished 2nd BSP 1.44
2.30 Brand Bob
UPDATED RESULT. Finished 6th BSP 2.55

I have no idea whether my system is unique but I do know it's profitable in the short, medium and long term.

Have a great day and always keep your powder dry.

ST



Thanks SurfSide Trader. Can we have the pleasure of seeing you post some tips daily?

#3 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 10 November 2010 - 05:47 PM

Thanks SurfSide Trader. Can we have the pleasure of seeing you post some tips daily?


Good evening
Yes, it's my intention to post daily selections (where there are qualifiers) each day this month. As we all know, past performance is no guarantee of future success but I am hopeful that we can show a healthy profit by the end of the month.

Regards
ST

#4 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 09:33 AM

Good morning to you all.
Here are todays suggested lays...all currently with low liabilities.

1.25 Clonmel. Apt Manor

1.40 Taunton. Rebel Du Maquis

4.50 Wolv. Matsunosuke

Have a great day and please stake sensibly.

Regards
ST

#5 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 09:40 AM

For those of you who respect the views of Graham Rodway in the Racing Post, here are some of his thoughts on the best lays of the day;

Land And Sea
3.20 Southwell
SP forecast 4-6

Barry Hills's filly has been running well in maidens on the turf recently and, with a BHA rating of 68, she is officially 5lb better than the best of her rivals here. If she runs up to her best she will almost certainly win, but there is always a big question mark over horses who are unproven on this specialist Fibresand surface. Hills does well with the few runners he has here and that gives hope she can act on it, but it is not guaranteed.

Conclusion I'm always keen to oppose short-priced favourites who are unproven on this surface. Blowout.



Lay of the day (for a place)
Sway 3.00 Ludlow

This four-year-old filly won six from eight over hurdles in France, but she has been disappointing since joining Jonjo O'Neill, falling on her British debut at Fontwell and following up with two dismal efforts,over both hurdles and fences.

She was sent off at 8-11 on her chasing debut at Uttoxeter last month, but she was never going that day and trailed in 39 lengths behind winner Abey M'Boy. It was difficult to find any obvious excuse, as she was a multiple winner on very soft ground in France and should have been well suited by the heavy ground.

It may be a shade early to write her off, but this is a stronger race than the one at Uttoxeter and she will need to bounce back to somewhere near her best to break her maiden over fences.

That looks unlikely and, with only two places available, it looks worth taking her on in the place market.

Regards
ST





#6 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 05:09 PM

Good morning to you all.
Here are todays suggested lays...all currently with low liabilities.

1.25 Clonmel. Apt Manor
UPDATED RESULT. PULLED UP. BSP. 5.86

1.40 Taunton. Rebel Du Maquis
UPDATED RESULT. 1st. BSP. 2.12

4.50 Wolv. Matsunosuke
UPDATED RESULT. 1st. BSP.4.40

A losing day at BSP. An interesting day when early prices are considered. Apt Manor was available around 2.0 this morning and then drifted like the proverbial barge until the off. Somebody knew something and an easy "greening up" opportunity was available at 5.8 before the race started. Rebel Du Maquis was strong in the market pre race and justified that support with an impressive display save for two serious blunders in the home straight which, on a stiffer course, would probably have seen the horse fall. Matsunosuke was available in the low 3's early in the day and was available at 4.5 on the off, again affording a green up opportunity if desired. The bottom line is that it was a losing day at level stakes but a winning day for those who choose to green up.

Have an enjoyable evening.

Regards
ST



#7 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 06:15 AM

Good morning to you all. I hope the high winds have left the roof on your property. Let's hope we keep the shirts on your backs today also!

Todays Lays;

2.15 Newc. Primrose Time
UPDATE: Finished 1st. BSP 2.9

3.45 Ling. Naheel
UPDATE: Finished 1st. BSP 3.95

6.50 Wolv. Realisation
UPDATE: Finished 3rd. BSP 2.07

A disappointing day for level stake layers. Quite how Primrose Time won the race will remain a mystery to me for a long time having traded at 100.0 in running. It did help that all her serius rivals fell and there was only the rank outsider to beat but she almost managed it for us.
Naheel won fair and square having travelled well throughout the race. The apprentice jockey on the favourite reminded me of a rower in a boat suddenly realising he didn't have any oars! At least we got the hotpot in the 6.50 well beaten to end the day on a high plus Graham from the Racing Post gave two nice short priced successful lays also.

ST

#8 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 10:09 AM

Here are Graham Rodway's thoughts on the best lays of the day...

Lay of the day
Garde Champetre 3.00 Cheltenham

Enda Bolger's 11-year-old is 3-5 over course and distance and, with a BHA rating of 161, is officially the best horse in this contest by some distance.

He is sure to be thereabouts on these terms, but all of his best form has come with some cut in the ground and, with it riding good to firm on the cross-country course, there has to be a big doubt over whether he will be effective on this much faster surface.

Comprehensively beaten when last seen over course and distance in March, he carried a big weight that day but it was still a disappointing effort. I'm not convinced weight is such an issue in these contests due to the slow early pace making them less of a test and, given his impressive previous course form, Garde Champetre should have got a lot closer.

The officially good ground that day - it was arguablyfaster than that - was probably to blame and there is every chance he will be found out by the quicker surface again.

The Knoxs
1.05 Newcastle
SP forecast Evs

Howard Johnson's gelding looked a top prospect after back-to-back victories at Newcastle last winter, showing versatility by winning over 2m and 3m. He struggled when upped in grade later in the season, trailing in well beaten here and tailing off at Perth, but this Irish point winner remains an exciting prospect and is the one to beat.

Conclusion Johnson's runners have been in need of their first outing and on the back of two poor runs, I'll be a layer.



#9 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 11:00 AM

Good morning to you all. I hope the high winds have left the roof on your property. Let's hope we keep the shirts on your backs today also!

Todays Lays;

2.15 Newc. Primrose Time

3.45 Ling. Naheel

6.50 Wolv. Realisation

I will be laying the first and last named at the current prices in the belief that both will drift pre race and allow a green up. Naheel is currrently trading higher than I anticipated so will wait before laying.

Have a great day.

ST


If you laid the earlier price on Primrose Hill there is now an opportunity to green up and guarantee a 12% profit no matter what the outcome of the race.

Regards
ST

#10 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 13 November 2010 - 10:53 AM

Good day on a beautiful sunny morning. Let's hope todays selections bring further sunshine to our lives and bank balances. I've commented on yesterdays selections a little further up in this thread.

Todays lays are;

Chelt 12.50. Titan De Sarti (currently available to lay at 3.2)

Chelt 1.20. Wayward Prince (3.25)

Weth 1.45. Pistol Basc (3.45)

Ling 3.30. Talley Close (3.2)

Here are James Pyman's thoughts from the Racing Post today.

Lay of the day (for a place)
Matsunosuke
3.00 Lingfield

A drop to claiming class has sparked a revival from this useful sprinter, who is chasing a hat-trick in this competitive 6f handicap after successive wins in Wolverhampton claimers.

The eight-year-old is a prolific winner on the all-weather with ten victories in 31 races and, on the face of it, laying for a place at a course where he has won four times and made the first three on eight of his 11 starts, looks risky. However, closer inspection of his course record reveals that he has not been placed his most recent three outings.

His 6lb penalty means he is in effect running off a mark of 105, and to give weight away all round to some decent sprint handicappers hes going to need reproduce the form he showed last December/January.

However, hes failed to achieve a Racing Post Rating of bigger than 94 since he returned from a brief spell in
Meydan in March which has raised question marks about his ability to run to a level in line with his current handicap rating.

A truly run 5f seems to suit him better, so this trip of 6f is another potential negative.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have a great day however you choose to spend it.

Regards
ST



#11 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 14 November 2010 - 09:24 AM

Good day on a beautiful sunny morning. Let's hope todays selections bring further sunshine to our lives and bank balances. I've commented on yesterdays selections a little further up in this thread.

Todays lays are;

Chelt 12.50. Titan De Sarti (currently available to lay at 3.2)
UPDATED: Finished 5th. BSP 4.4

Chelt 1.20. Wayward Prince (3.25)
UPDATED: Finished 1st. BSP3.45 (traded at 6.85 in running)

Weth 1.45. Pistol Basc (3.45)
UPDATED: Finished 2nd. BSP 4.41

Ling 3.30. Talley Close (3.2)
UPDATED: Finished 1st. BSP 3.15

Here are James Pyman's thoughts from the Racing Post today.

Lay of the day (for a place)
Matsunosuke
3.00 Lingfield
UPDATED: UNPLACED

A drop to claiming class has sparked a revival from this useful sprinter, who is chasing a hat-trick in this competitive 6f handicap after successive wins in Wolverhampton claimers.

The eight-year-old is a prolific winner on the all-weather with ten victories in 31 races and, on the face of it, laying for a place at a course where he has won four times and made the first three on eight of his 11 starts, looks risky. However, closer inspection of his course record reveals that he has not been placed his most recent three outings.

His 6lb penalty means he is in effect running off a mark of 105, and to give weight away all round to some decent sprint handicappers he's going to need reproduce the form he showed last December/January.

However, he's failed to achieve a Racing Post Rating of bigger than 94 since he returned from a brief spell in
Meydan in March which has raised question marks about his ability to run to a level in line with his current handicap rating.

A truly run 5f seems to suit him better, so this trip of 6f is another potential negative.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Have a great day however you choose to spend it.

Regards
ST



Yet another mixed bag of results. Wayward Price was extremely fortunate to win having benefited greatly from the carnage two out...but nonetheless the records will show he won the race.

#12 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 14 November 2010 - 09:29 AM

Good morning on a pretty grey Sunday.

We are due a change of fortune and here are the lays that will deliver;

1.00 Market Rasen. Spice Bar

1.10 Chelt. Loosen My Load

Have a great Sunday, I'm off to get my Xmas shopping done and dusted but will have my ipad with me to follow the two races above.

ST

P.S. For those interested in football bets...I have a feeling that there will be a goal fest in the Hoffenheim v Frieberg game later so the "above 2.5 goals" will be seeing a slice of my money.

#13 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 15 November 2010 - 10:24 AM

Good morning on a pretty grey Sunday.

We are due a change of fortune and here are the lays that will deliver;

1.00 Market Rasen. Spice Bar
UPDATE: Finished 1st. BSP 4.34 (traded at 25.0 in running)

1.10 Chelt. Loosen My Load
UPDATE: Finished 3rd. BSP 4.73 (traded at 1.2 in running)

Have a great Sunday, I'm off to get my Xmas shopping done and dusted but will have my ipad with me to follow the two races above.

ST

P.S. For those interested in football bets...I have a feeling that there will be a goal fest in the Hoffenheim v Frieberg game later so the "above 2.5 goals" will be seeing a slice of my money.


Another disappointing day to end a very disappointing week. There have been lots of opportunities to green up either prior to or during races but ultimately I'm about finding horses whose prices are shorter than their precentage chance of winning. In that respect is has been a dismal week culminating with me backing Sunderland to beat Chelsea 2-1 or draw 2-2 @48.0 & 36.0 respectively. At 2-0 I am fully expecting a Chelsea comeback along the lines of Man Utd on Sat but not only did they fail to do so but Sunderland go on a score a 3rd goal! Time to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down and crack on with this week.

ST

#14 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 15 November 2010 - 10:37 AM

Good morning to you.

Todays Lays;

1.00 Plumpton. Union Island. Currently 3.7
UPDATE: Finished 1st. BSP. 4.3 ( available to back at 11.0 in running and 6.5 before the off)

1.50 Leicester. Dr Valentine. Currently 2.96
UPDATE: Finished 6th. BSP 3.12

2.00 Plumpton. Paint The Clouds. Currently 3.6
UPDATE: Finished 4th. BSP 5.4

Have a great Monday.

ST

#15 SurfSide Trader

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Posted 16 November 2010 - 11:26 AM

Good morning. A particularly poor days racing to endure. The forecast heavy ground is dessimating fields and only the paceless, but relentless, sloggers are taking their chances.

I will be laying the following;

1.30 Fakenham. Gavroche Gaugin ( has been barge-esque in the market this morning! Currently 3.45)

3.00. Fakenham. Nautical Approach (currently trading at 2.7 and with a typically dodgy jumping history will almost certainly trade bigger in running. A good back to lay prospect)

Have a great day.

ST


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