Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2014

Trading The Over & Under Market

Part 6:

Trading Over/Under Market

This is to do with over/under betting. Generally speaking, it’s not hard to find stats that will indicate whether a team scores or concedes many goals. Obviously when two teams with tight defences and poor attacks meet, the game tends to have few goals and vice-versa.

The fact is that, on average, the first goal of a game is scored around the 37th minute mark. So, by blindly backing under 2.5 goals in all matches alone you’ll have a high strike rate of success if you traded under 2.5 goals back, after laying it pre-match with ten minutes gone and the game still being 0-0. However, by being selective and choosing those games low scoring teams, the strike rate could be made even higher.

The odds will probably reflect this, but when trading the odds don’t really matter. What you’re looking for is the price to move in your favour and I expect the % price movements for higher and lower prices are about the same, meaning you don’t lose much backing these low odd matches, but have a higher chance of success.

I’ll be trying this out next season, as it’s an idea that I only recently thought of. It might also be an idea to use a simple ratings system based on goals scored and conceded. A simple system that will give you a rough idea on how many goals games involving certain teams generally have can be thought-up in minutes. For example, you could average the goals in the last 10 games a team has played. If two teams are playing each other with an average below 2.25, you could decide you want to trade in the under market for this game. (This is a ratings system I came up with in a few minutes as a demonstration. Please don’t assume it will make you money!).

The over/under market selected, might also be something to think about. For example, 3.5 goals gives you more security on still being able to make a profitable trade in an early goal is scored and the difference in the price movements should be sharper after 10 minutes of no goals. The obviously downside would be that if the match was free-scoring and two early goals went in, you’d have to trade back at very low odds and lose money, or let it ride and have a very nervous remainder of the game.

These games do happen. I remember quite late last season, my own personal ratings system, which in themselves give out a profit, had Birmingham vs. WBA as banker for unders, but it finished 3-1 and I was lucky to have been able to trade out for a small loss.

For those of you with a detailed knowledge of football, you can use injuries and suspensions to your advantage, too. For example, if a first choice goal keeper is injured and you are aware that the back-up is less than reliable, you may conclude that in the game coming up, the team may well concede more goals than usual.

Finally, formations can also be important. A side like Bolton, for example, generally play a defensive 4-5-1. Two teams playing defensive formations usually result in low-scoring games, which can be good for trading with this strategy.