Wednesday, Sep. 24, 2014


Have you prepared your campaign against the bookies this season? What’ll it be – backing, laying, trading – the good old accumulators that seem to go pearshaped at about the same time every Saturday (you know –about 4.43pm!) or traditional fixed odds betting on the long list coupon?

This Football Lay System has been doing the rounds on our football forum for the past month or so and it has been very successful. Whilst the overall rules have been placed on the forum I thought it would be a good idea to formulise them into a coherent system that is easy to follow and hopefully cannot be misunderstood. I have named it "Football Lay Devil".

I have personally flagged up numerous bets which have resulted in returns, and it is no special gift I have, rather it is just being aware of certain (predominantly Premiership) underperforming teams and strikers. As I hinted at above, I prefer the higher profile sequences which are well advertised. It is a good idea to wait for the sequence selection to play against a team where they are in with a fighting chance of ending their sequence.

How do we know when a bet is value? The only way we know, is if we have something to measure it against. What we do is measure it against a ratings system and then quantify the result into odds. We can then see what the bookmakers odds are and if they are bigger than our calculated odds, then you have a value bet.

To demonstrate my point I will use an example taken from my site. In the recent FA Cup match between Chelsea and Colchester, Chelsea were available to back at 1.14 on Betfair a few days before the match, yet they were trading a lot lower with the bookmakers, ranging from 1.07 to 1.11. You would expect the prices on the exchanges to be slightly higher but at 1.14 this was double the price of the lowest bookmaker price.

This is a simple soccer system that I use from the start of every season but can equally well be used at any time of the season. The New Year would be an ideal opportunity to start it off.

If you want to profit from football, at whatever level, you must do your research and then make an informed opinion based on how you interpret the information. Here are some key factors I think will improve your strike rate.

We are getting toward the stage of the football season when the Premier League fixture list contains lots of ‘dead matches'. Games that mean nothing much to either team. But they could be money in the bank to you…Sides that have no chance of qualifying for Europe, and those safe from the threat of relegation, often just go through the motions when they meet. Many football backers hate betting on these games, they know that 'form' can go out of the window. But for shrewd punters, these matches can be a goldmine.