Football Sequencing

What did the following have in common last season? Elgin, Watford, Sheffield United, Wayne Rooney, Andrey Shevschenko, Juan Pablo Angel, Peter Crouch, Spurs, West Ham Sunderland at home?

Answer – they have all completed sequences of one type or another last season. For example, Elgin were on the verge of breaking a record held by Manchester United for consecutive losses. I backed them at 11/8 when their losing sequence reached double figures, and they promptly won their next 2 matches.

Shevschenko and Rooney made the headlines for their prospective goal droughts, and Rooney promptly ended his with a hatrick and Sheva ended his ( both of these players could have been backed at 4/1 and higher to score) More famously, Peter Crouch went 11 games without scoring for Liverpool, and now he just can’t help it!

West Ham’ s poor run of defeats last season ended against Middlesbrough at home with a 2-1 win. Sheffield United broke 3 sequences – 1st premiership win, 1st away goal scored, and first away win.Juan Pablo Angel ended a 5 game goal drought . Watford recorded their first premiership victory .Sunderland scored their first home victory under Roy Keane’s leadership after a barren home spell, and Wayne Rooney scored for England for the first time in a year against Holland …. And so the sequences go on

It’s to early in the current season for me to show you any noticeable sequences BUT Manchester United going 4 matches without winning – now what were the chances of that happening?

Last season , Liverpool had not won away from home, and had only scored the one goal. They faced a muddling Middlesbrough side and were worth backing to end the catastrophic away form.

Crystal Palace in the Championship were enduring a pitiful run which had to end soon.

SO HOW CAN I BENEFIT?

An interesting question. The merits of sequencing were introduced to me by my pal Simon and are as applicable to football as they are to horseracing , which was the original basis of the idea. What he hypothesized was that losing sequences would end at some time – the question is when? With the horse racing he concluded that losing sequences very rarely ran to 18+ when concerning favourites in specific races at specific venues.( after looking back over 10 years of research.

We cannot be as precise with Football alas. But what we can do is to begin a progressive staking system (only a suggestion – there are other staking plans less aggressive) on bets to end the sequences whatever they are – eg a goal drought, a team unable to win at home/away , or a team unable to win period! Because of the poor previous records, odds are likely to remain odds against, and so preferable to progressive staking. Luckily my sequences have ended quickly and I only had to employ my progressive staking with Wayne Rooney who failed to score in the first match I backed him at (4/1) but scored his hatrick in the very next match. Now progressive staking is one option. A safer option is to look to win an initial target profit on every race rather than , as with progressive staking, the same target profit with every bet plus any losses incurred previously

RESOURCES

You can find these sequences in a number of ways. The most obvious way is to keep your eyes and ears open for news in the national sports press. For example, Liverpool’s poor away form was being well advertised , and for a team of that quality, this losing run didn’t continue long. So, when they met opposition which, normally they are in with a chance of beating, then that’s the time to start backing them to end the sequence. The Wayne Rooney and Shevschenko goal droughts were well advertised in the National media and so easy to spot, as was Elgin’s losing sequence.

www.soccerstats.com actually have a stats table devoted to sequences which is a god send. Click on your team of choice and view the sequences table to determine if any sequences show themselves. Remember the longer the sequence, the nearer the end of that sequence we will be

The Racing and Football Outlook (RFO) is an ideal resource for sequencing. In the permutations section of the newspaper, they have a sequences table which does all of the leg work for you. Taking a look at a week’s RFO last year, the key areas of the table to look at were home and away - number of games since the team last won.

From one weeks’ table, I saw that Newcastle and Bolton hadn’t won in 4 matches, Crystal Palace hadn’t won in 8 matches, Brentford hadn’t won in 15, Rochdale in 7, Macclesfield in 19, Boston in 8, and Dunfermline in 6.

Using the pools pick section of the newspaper, note the teams who are winless and the teams who have lost a set number of games – eg Macclesfield are winless for 19, Brentford are winless for 15 and Luton have lost their last 5 games.

From this list it is advisable to check odds for the above named teams and whether they are playing at home this weekend.

Personal preference is for the more high profile sequences such as Liverpool’s sequence

Look out also for strikers WHO ARE REGULAR FIRST TEAM PLAYERS but are experiencing a goal drought at present. The ideal market to bet on is the “to score anytime” market , and a form of progressive staking can be applied because of the favourable odds in these markets. Instead of looking to retrieve lost target profits for these bets, I would seek to retrieve lost stake only if our player doesn’t score.

For example, if I staked £10 on a player to score anytime and he didn’t score in the first game, on the next occasion I would look to win a certain target profit and the lost £10 first stake.

BOTTOM LINE

I have personally flagged up numerous bets which have resulted in returns, and it is no special gift I have, rather it is just being aware of certain (predominantly Premiership) underperforming teams and strikers.

As I hinted at above, I prefer the higher profile sequences which are well advertised. It is a good idea to wait for the sequence selection to play against a team where they are in with a fighting chance of ending their sequence. For example, from the selections mentioned Macclesfield were playing at home and were quoted at 2.25 (just over evens) against Boston United at odds of 2.75. The odds themselves tell me that Macclesfield were in with a chance this weekend. Similarly Luton were playing at home and their odds of 2.5 were the same as their opposition . Crystal Palace were 1.83 to win at home ,and Dunfermline were 2.5 , same odds as their opposition.

Having checked the results, Dunfermline won 2-1 – sequence ends . Crystal Palace win 2-0 – sequence ends. Macclesfield lost 2-3 and Luton lost 2-0, so these sequences would be carried over.

Also, pay attention to other headline sports such as England’s losing run of 6 in the Rugby Union last year . Guess what? They beat South Africa next game – sequence ended!

This can be a simple way to highlight value bets daily, and the key thing for me is the higher profile the better. Wayne Rooney was always going to score wasn’t he? Quality is permanent!

PS As I write now, did you notice the sequence involving Sammy Lee and Bolton stretching to the back end of last season. Yes Bolton recently ended their winless sequence!.

Teams to note this early on include Derby county to record their first win.

I will be doing a horse racing sequencing article which you will find very interesting