Friday, Sep. 19, 2014

Dutching Using The Highlighted Runners

Probably one of the most versatile and overlooked betting techniques. Dutching is the method of backing multiple runners in a race to return a profit should any one of the selections win. Another way to look at Dutching is to create an under-round “book” that has the most likely winners of the event running for you leaving the lesser chance runners out of your calculations, so providing you have the winner in your “book” and your “book” is less than 100%  a profit is achieved, Bet-IE makes Dutching really easy and really profitable.

When we Dutch using Bet-IE we have two sources to find our races to use from, we have the “orange” highighted boxes and market data which is a very solid method to use(this article basis), or we now have the free “unique” ratios and ratings only available to Bet-IE users. If you are a registered software user all you need to do to access these ratangs is drop us a line with your name and Bet-IE code.

We will take a brief look at how to utilise the orange boxes to make your selections from. If you select an event and allow Bet-IE to load the competitors into the runners list area of the software. (fig.1)



Here we can see Bet-IE is indicating in this race the most likely winners are the four highlighted horses Rustler, Kanad, Classic Dream, Celicello now we can also see some further very important imformation from this image. If we look at the spread% we can see that this is quite low only 35.71% this is the indication as to how reliable the Dutch will be based on these “most likely winners” ideally we want a Spread% in excess of 80%.

Another vital part of the selection process to place a Dutch is you are looking for a “strength indication” to the Dutch. Now in the above screnshot that is not present but as the markets went In Play just look at how the data changed.(fig.2)



Now this race would become of interest, we have a good spread of 150%, we have a strength indication showing of “21.4% Fair” but more importantly WE HAVE A PROFIT IN EXCESS OF 25%…..

I would start to examine the markets showing a basic 20% profit margin but with the 80% min spread in place and a strength indication showing, the reason being this 20% profit is easily enhanced to well beyond our 25% minimum. If we can’t enhance the profit to a minimum of 25% then the advice is simple DON’T USE THE RACE. One simple approach is to look for weak favourites (favourites priced at 3.5 or bigger) and either aim to “zero” the profit (this means I will return my full Dutch stake (less Betfair commission)) or even lay an amount out of my total stake. By carrying out this simple procedure you can easily take your profit margin to well above 25%, couple it with the Reverse function also and you have possibly a very profitable position.

The long term profit is generated quite easily by looking at the following information, our strike rate for the most likely winners long term is approximately 80% year in year out. If we take Betfair’s commission into account which we must, then at a true 80% strike rate we need a minimum profit of 25% to break even. Now because the horse racing markets are not fixed profit events, the profit on every race varies, this is why we need to make a minimum profit for our investments of 25%. So if we can create a consistent profit margin above 25% we will profit long term from our investments. Using simple strategies of profit enhancement you will easily create profits of above 25%. With a little effort and thought I am sure you can easily enhance profits to regularly 30%+.

That said we should point out the need to constantly monitor your strike rates and keep your Dutching to the strongest winning chances from the data provided. I personally won’t use races if there are debutants in the field as these events I find these events to be less predictable, everything about the debutants is not known, you don’t know if the horse will be frightened by the crowds, the grandstands, the noise and so it may take a run or two for the horse to get used to these new distractions and that can’t be trained at the home gallops. So if I see a race were the head of the market has a debutant involved I will pass the race by and wait for my next solid opportunity.

So if you follow these basic factors you will be making consistent worthwhile long term profits out of your Dutching :

1. Read the market data if all the factors are in place (80% spread / 20% profit / strength indication showing) then you have a solid race to examine.
2. Enhance your profit.
3. Enhance your profit. (I know I have stated this twice but it is vital to your long term profitability of the method)
4. When the profit is 25%+ then and only then should you place a bet
5. Leave placing the bet as late as possible to give the market data is strongest winning opportunity..

Thats the basics for covered for Dutching using the highlighted boxes but in the next article lets show you the ratios in action, they are really easy to use.

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