Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2015

System 11

This is a system that I use from time to time and it has proven very profitable over the years and is still doing so today. It is based in the HT/FT market, where you have to predict the outcome at half-time and at full-time. Obviously the odds are so much better than they are for just predicting the winner. It is simple to use and very effective. It will only take 10 minutes of your time to identify the games.

1. On a weekend/midweek I look through the long list of fixtures to find games where both sides are evenly matched by odds. By this I mean they must both be within the range of 13/10 - 7/4.

2 In a full weekend programme you should be able to find at least 10 of these. Now you need to work in multiples of 5, you will see why shortly, so you need 5, 10 or 15 games.

3 Now the first part of the puzzle is to come up with the result at half-time and this is easy because we are going to say it will be a draw at half-time. The teams are evenly matched, so there is every chance of a draw at half-time. (I used this system last weekend and out of 10 matches, 6 of them were draws at half-time).

4. The second part of the puzzle is to predict the final outcome. I have a set procedure for this because I always pick the home win, (45% of all English League matches end in a home win). You may wish to pick away wins but I generally think that it is safer to go with the home win. So my forecast is Draw/Home Win. Now for this type of evenly matched game you will get odds between 5/1 - 6/1 for this scenario, whereas you only get about 6/4 for just predicting a home win.

They then, are the simple rules for this system but we will look at the maths and why we work in multiples of 5.

For this type of evenly matched game you would get odds of around even money for predicting a Draw at half-time. Now we know that 45% of English games are won by the home side, so this would be a shade of odds against. If you put those two together you should be getting around 3/1 or just over for the Draw/Home Win prediction but in fact you are getting 5/1 - 6/1, the odds are definitely in your favour.

The reason we need to work in multiples of 5 games is straightforward. Say you picked out 5 games that fitted the criteria and you got odds of 5/1 for each of the Draw/Home Win predictions, then you would only need 1 match to come out right to make a profit of 20% ROI. If you picked 6 games and only 1 came out right you would only break even, that is why we work in multiples of 5. So say you found 10 matches, then you would need 2 of them to come out right to maintain a 20% ROI. Actually last weekend I found 10 games and just 2 of them came out with a Draw/Home win scenario but because I got odds of 6/1 and 11/2 for the two, I made a profit of 3.5 points and 35%ROI. Fantastic.