Bag a Big Price!
BAG A BIGGIE – tactics to help you back big priced win and placed horses
Those of you who have read and actioned the 16/1 SYSTEM know there are certain tactics for backing horses at big prices who run well and can win at odds of 16/1 or greater.
I’ve uncovered a couple of other techniques which can help you turn small stakes into big returns and you’ll be pleased to hear that you don’t need to know the stable lad or trainer for insider information.
The first system I have christened the OUT OF KILTER SYSTEM
So what’s involved? Well the idea here is to find a horse whose price stands out like a Sunderland Fan at the Gallowgate end.
An example is the best way to show you the effectiveness of this strategy
The idea here is to make note of a horse’s price which doesn’t quite fit in.
FOLLOW THESE SIMPLE STEPS
Firstly this process only works on Betfair’s price markets. Look at the back prices ( those in blue) from top to bottom. In a normal market the shortest price will appear at the top and as we move down each price will be slightly bigger than the price above.
From the example above, can you see the first horse’s price is 2.56, then we have 8.4 then 10.5. Great so far, but hold on a second, the prices then go 24, 14, 42, 8.2? This doesn’t follow our rule does it?
Intersky melody is out of kilter isn’t it? Maryolini is even more prominent. As we are expecting prices to increase gradually as we move down the page, here we have 2 prices which don’t follow this rule.
Now you would think that we are looking for prices that have shortened – why? Well surely if a horse is fancied its price will shorten as money comes to back it. BUT the key to this system is to look for prices which are far too big for their position in the market.
Let’s look at Maryolini and the horses’ prices around it. The prices are 14,42, 8.2 and 11.
We would expect Maryolini’s price to be around 16 or lower for its position so why is it 42? It looks like that Sunderland Fan at the Gallowgate end!
Now let’s look at the race in the Betfair market …
Now let’s look at the result
A winner at 25/1 Coincidence? I’m not so sure. The horses’ huge price in Betfair would surely have brought any level headed punter to the conclusion that it was unfancied – after all, horses who are not backed tend to rise in price.
A look at the race type and this is a maiden race over 6 furlongs for 2 year olds – an ideal betting medium for upsets and stable gambles
I am at a loss as to why the price remained at 42 if the horse was fancied to cause an upset and I am naturally gutted that I didn’t have £10 each way on the horse on Betfair!
This phenomenon is not isolated. Throughout July and August I came across only a handful of opportunities and counted amongst these winners at 16/1 + (this was the shortest price!) and about 4 at 20/1 + in the bookmaker’s market – and generally a lot bigger on Betfair.
FACTORS TO NOTE
In order for you to successfully select these types of bets, I would add this general rule – only bet on the bleedin’ obvious ( like Maryolini in the above example) Simply put, bet on those horses who are quite obviously out of kilter within the context of the race.
The higher these horses are in the race order the better. Can you see that Maryolini was surrounded by prices like 14, 8 and 11. Naturally there will be bigger prices towards the bottom of the screen as you read down – this is where you’ll find the “outsiders” with their big prices to match.
If an out of kilter bet appears in a race you would not normally entertain having a bet in, then all the better. In the above example, the race was a maiden race for 2 year olds -not the most appealing betting medium. I would count low grade handicaps, claimers , national hunt flat races, selling hurdles – you get the idea!.
My ready preference here would be to back these horses each way – this is simply a bet on the horse to place and a bet on the horse to win. Using Betfair, you would place half your stake on the horse in the “to place” market, and half of your stake on the horse in the traditional “ to win” market. This should be common sense. If you are backing huge priced horses, then you are not expecting a victory, ( you’re hoping for one of course!) –the best you can hope for is a place – ie to finish in the top 3 in an 8+ runner field. Don’t be disconsolate. Using Betfair’s “to place only “ market, on these big prices, you can often get the equivalent of 6/1 or bigger!
A recent example, which alas I did not manage to capture, came from a horse called Sion Hill. Now this horse was out of kilter at odds of ( clears throat) 75 in the to win market.
The horse finished 3rd at 25/1 (traditional bookmakers’ prices) and the place only odds were double figure! We may not have won but we cleaned up on the horse finishing 3rd. –What type of race was this – why a class 5 claiming stakes ( usually a race where I’d get me coat!)
And it is with claimers that I reveal my next technique
USE THE RACING POST BETTING FORECAST TO POINT YOU IN THE DIRECTION OF A POSSIBLE BIG PRICED UPSET
Sticking with my idea of trying to uncover big priced winners without exhaustive form analysis ( infact without any form analysis) I do , at times, use the racing post’s betting forecast to help me decide which outsider is worth speculating on. I have had the occasional success at 20/1 as well as some placed horses at big odds (and you know already the value of each way betting at big odds.)
This strategy is all down to a little deductive reasoning
Let me give you an example
145 BANGOR ON DEE -BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mud Monkey, 9/2 Park´s Prodigy, 6/1 Quite A Splash, 8/1 Muree Queen, 16/1 Bollin Fergus, Linkslade Lad, 25/1 Pertemps Networks, Strathaird, 33/1 Stand In Black, 40/1 Neat ´n Tidy, 50/1 Joella´s Lad
Here is the racing post betting forecast for a race at Bangor. From the betting forecast only, we can assume that Mud Monkey has an outstanding chance of winning. We , however, are looking to get bigger priced horses with the potential to win, or at least place so our stake, plus a little profit, is returned. Here I opted for Muree Queen – why? Well, looking at the race, we can assume Mud Monkey will at least place. This leaves us with 3 potential threats at 9/2, 6/1 and 8/1 and then a leap in the odds to the projected “outsiders” priced 16/1 or greater.Muree queen is the biggest priced of those horses priced below 16/1. The fact there are only 3 horses, bar the favourite, priced below 16/1 indicates that the betting forecaster thinks that these horses will challenge for the win, but at least be competitive for the place.
RESULT – Muree Queen 2nd 10/1
Here’s another example
205 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Harrison George, 4/1 Jaconet, 11/2 Tadalavil, 6/1 River Gleam, 7/1 Next Of Kin, 10/1 Hasty Lady, Stormy Journey, 11/1 El Tato, 12/1 Fantasy Fighter, 25/1 Ivestar, 40/1 Shot Through, 50/1 Bahamian Ballad, 66/1 Mistress Rio.
I opted for Hasty Lady and Next of Kin each way – why? Firstly 3/1 the field indicates that the favourite is no sure thing. The outsiders begin with Ivestar at 25/1. There are 8 horses between the favourite and the beginning of the outsiders at 25/1. I opted for the 5th and 6th named horses in the betting forecast as they were positioned near enough to the head of the betting market to indicate they could at least place
RESULT – Hasty Lady 3rd 14/1 – don’t dismiss this – the place only odds on Betfair make this result actually profitable!
525 NEWMARKET - BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Nezami, 9/4 Timetable, 8/1 Redesignation, 10/1 Ablaan, 14/1 Alcimedes, Shadow Cabinet, 16/1 Long Distance, Mon Plaisir, Sky Dive, 33/1 Graylyn Ruby, Race The Moon, 50/1 Galley Slave, Space Pirate, 66/1 Kabuku.
3rd and 5th betting forecast favourites here - redesignation and Alcimedes. What is my thinking here? Well, this is a maiden race and Redesignation is 3rd named betting forecast favourite and Alcimedes is priced just before the 16/1 “outsiders”. With maiden races I do like to include 3rd and 5th betting forecast favourites as the horses may actually be fancied near the off. This happened with Redesignation who was backed off the boards and won at 11/4.
2 more strategies for you to be aware of while you’re going about your usual betting activities. Both strategies are effective in the UK and Irish racing markets and require no form analysis at all. Backing obvious out of kilter horses each way should pay off well especially if you can capture the enhanced Betfair odds like Maryolini’s 42 (curses for not backing it myself!) and back the really obvious candidates.