Betting Psychology - Money Management - Betting Strategies
THE GOLDEN RULES:
Before anyone even thinks to endeavor in the gambling and betting industry, he must be aware of a few golden rules that must follow strictly if he is to accomplish any positive yield and profit:
1) Bet only as much as you can afford to lose
2) Gambling Is a marathon and not a sprint
3) Never chase your losses once you hit a losing streak
4) Always remember rules 1, 2 and 3!
I have seen a lot of punters with a very good strike rate failing to show any kind of profit due to very poor/bad money management and Betting Psychology.
Gambling ought to be thought as an investment and as any good investor, one should expect to earn some money in the end and not lose some.
Also good investors know how to protect their capital and not throw it away on a hunch, and as such, betting should be approached with the same manner.
One of the best ways is first to monitor your results for a period of time, ideally for a whole season of the sport you like to bet on. Then you should be able to calculate your strike rate and the average odds you bet on. From then onwards you can proceed to subdivide your strike rate according to the different odds you bet on.
You should now be able to calculate your LLR (Longest Losing Streak), your LWR (Longest Winning Streak), and the yield you accomplished in the different odds.
Fine, I hear you say, all that is well and good but how will they help me with my betting in the future??
I will answer you immediately! Now that you gathered and monitored your results you can do several things. Firstly, by the method of exclusion you can identify and remove any bets that caused you a negative yield and loss of capital.
Then you can identify what method of staking that suits you best or improves your profitability (we’ll discuss that further on).
You don’t have to bet on all the Leagues , identify the ones you are best at and you feel more confident when predicting a game and stick to those ,its only logical right ?
Now, you are becoming a more refined Bettor and assuming a mathematical/professional approach. What you are doing is a simple Investing Rule: Minimizing the losses and Maximizing the Profits. That is what every company in the world tries to succeed year in and year out. Consider your gambling as your own home business and that you try to achieve the maximum profit you can with minimum risk of your initial investment and capital.
All clear so far? Good! It means that you are in the right track if you are still reading on!
Also, you have to be aware that there is as much chance to win as there is to lose, DO NOT GET DISSAPPOINTED if you hit a losing streak and DON’T GIVE UP. It is bound to happen and you should be prepared for it.
This brings us to our next subject which is Money Management.
As is mentioned above losing streaks are inevitable and any serious punter should be prepared for it. That’s where the money management part and your previous research come in.
If, for example you bet on average odds of 2.00 then you have to calculate 2 things from your previous result monitoring. How long was your longest losing run and how often did it occur?
Though things can get extremely complicated, an easy way is to calculate your recommended stake, is to calculate your LLR and how many times it occurred, and then multiply them by 2. The number that you get, you then get it divided by 100 and that would be the stake that you should use on every bet expressed as a % of your bank.
EXAMPLE: LLR =2, FREQUENCY=50
Stake = 100 / (50 x 2) x 2 =
The stake you should be using is 0.5% of your bank on every bet.
The extra multiplication x 2 is for extra safety allowing the losing streaks of 2 to occur up to 100 times and not only 50. Alternatively you can omit that part and do the same calculations without it, the result would be to bet 1% of your bank every time.
It might not sound much now, but remember, betting is a marathon and not a sprint, firstly aim to protect your bank and with proper management it will slowly built up.
Punters tend to use either complicated or simple staking patterns that have a very wide range from: Martingale, D’Alembert, Kelly Criteria, stakes according to confidence, fixed staking and staking for fixed profits.
From the above mentioned, each one has its supporters and its advocates, my personal preference is for fixed stakes, otherwise known as flat betting.
The idea is simple, every time you allocate the same bet (expressed as a % of your bank) to all your selections whatever the odds might be.
That is the safest way to bet and also protect your bank from bankruptcy. Remember though to apply the calculations mentioned above to find out the correct % you need to bet every time!
The 2 major types of staking are, Fixed Liability and Flat staking. Again each has its supporters but if you ask me it all depends on your strike rate and average odds you are willing to Lay at.
A very useful point to remember is that, if a system does NOT show profit with Flat Staking then it most definitely won’t show a profit with Fixed Liability!
In that sense my advice is to start with Flat staking and if the system proves to be a success then proceed to Fixed Liability which, if correctly calculated could and should maximize your profit !
FORMULA FOR CALCULATING STAKES FOR FIXED LIABILITY IS:
Stake = Fixed Liability / (odds – 1)
Avoid Playing Combos, it will only ruin your day and lead you to lose your bank. It is mathematically proven that the bettor has better chances to end on top when betting SINGLES. It reduces the over-round of the bookmaker and minimizing your chances of losing.
If we take for example 3 teams with odds of 2.00 winning then think about the following before you bet your hard-earned cash on a combo:
A team with odds 2 has 50% chances of winning.
A combo with 3 teams of odds 2.00 has a chance of (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5) = 0.125 or 12.5 % of winning.
That means you reduce your chances by 37.5% of winning and give away that winning margin to the bookie! Would you bet on a combo now??? I don’t think so!
STRATEGIES FOR MAXIMISING YOUR PROFIT:
Well, a kind of misleading term as it only applies to systems which show consistent profit over a certain period of time.
If you thought of system that does well, take some time and go through your results to see how long it takes for it to get a 10% profit. If it happens every 2 or 3 or 4 months then what you have to do is to find out the longest time it took for it to show that profit.
Then re-adjust your stakes according to your new bank. If your 5000 pounds became 5500 in 4 months then why don’t you leave that in but now instead of betting 1% of 5000, bet 1% of 5500, which would give you some extra profit at the end of the season.
Same application for the Layers, just adjust your stakes or your Liability to the new bank and take it from there.
I hope you enjoyed reading this small but basic article about the basic principles of Betting.
Till the next one be well and bet sensibly.