How to Compile a Tissue in Horse Racing - Part Two

In the introduction to this article I explained how to use form ratings to construct a framework for a tissue. Here, I will discuss some of the factors that need to be considered when deciding the extent to which the ratings need to be adjusted to reflect the relative chance of each horse in a given race.  In this process, the key question to address is; “How likely is each horse to run to form?”

The most obvious indication of a horse’s wellbeing is his recent form and it’s clearly a positive if he comes into a given race after a good performance. Horses that have not been running to form are harder to analyse, and it’s important to consider possible excuses a horse might have for one or more disappointing runs. I use the below rules of thumb when deciding the extent to which each rating needs to be adjusted:

NB : If an obvious excuse can be found for a below-par or poor run, it is usually prudent to ignore that performance. Possible excuses might include; unsuitable ground/trip, a poorly judged ride or a significant jumping error, and it’s always worth checking for post-race excuses reported by the jockey and/or trainer (“breathing problem”, “lost action”, etc).

Not every horse will fit exactly into one of the categories and there will be frequent occasions when mitigating circumstances do not fully exonerate a poor run (I consider such horses to have had “half an excuse”), but it’s not difficult to deduce when a horse needs to be slotted somewhere between two categories.

We also need to consider the extent to which each horse has potential to improve on his existing form.  For obvious reasons, lightly raced horses are the main source of interest in this section, but it is not uncommon for experienced animals to make progress. Guesswork is often required, but an increase of 1lb-4lb is usually appropriate for in in-form horse with scope to improve. In extreme circumstances (for example, a once-raced easy winner), a horse may need to have upwards of 20lb added to his bare form rating.

Finally in this category, we may also need to consider how to approach a horse returning from an absence. A break of anything more than about three months is a potential issue and, for obvious reasons, the longer the absence, the greater the concern.

Almost any trainer can get one fully primed at home but many prefer to give a horse (at least) one “pipe-opener”.  Naturally, the best guide is usually to analyse whether the horse has run to form after breaks before, or usually needs one (or more) runs before hitting top gear. It’s also important to remember that some horses (often aging chasers) tend to run their best races when fresh.

It’s often difficult to draw firm conclusions, but my general guidelines are as below;

Length of Absence

 NB If a horse has changed stable during his break, his training regime may also have changed.