Sunday, May. 11, 2014

Laying The Losers

General Betfair ArticlesAnyone who has never tried in running betting on the exchanges is missing out on perhaps one of the greatest adrenalin rushes in the punting world. In running betting in horse racing especially is a white water ride of unsurpassed excitement for the uninitiated. Clicking the refresh button and seeing the numbers violently jump up and down every second, one can be forgiven for thinking that this is a place where your bankroll can come to serious harm.

You could be right of course because in running betting is certainly fraught with danger and not to be entered into lightly even for experienced users. It can also be a license to lose money as well for those who are careless enough to dip their toe in these shark infested waters without adequate preparation.

There is a big misconception in horse racing that Joe Punter needs to study form like they did back in the old days in order to be successful. This is a mistake, in fact the prices on Betfair for instance close to the off now represent perhaps the most accurate tissue that there is and overcoming this in the old conventional way is no mean feat.

During my early sessions on Betfair, I used to experiment with all types of strategies. I suppose like most people, my early failures were precisely what the vast majority of new users were experiencing. I started to watch the markets in running whilst watching the television at the same time. The speed of the market in a horse race can be very intimidating and the prices were moving so fast that even if you actually wanted a bet at a certain price, the price was long gone by the time that you had entered in the relevant data for your bet.

As I sat there and watched the races, something occurred to me that I just had to try out. It became apparent towards the end of the race that prices were still available to lay on Betfair when a horse was obviously beaten. Now before we go any further with this it is only fair to point out that I have a lot of experience when it comes to watching horse races and what may appear like a beaten horse to me would not appear that way to someone else.

But there is a precise moment in a race, a “pivotal moment” when a horse that has been leading or in serious contention is BEATEN and can not come back to win. For prices to still be available at all means that the horse cannot be blatantly beaten otherwise there wouldn’t be a lay price up there. I started to try and lay these losers and the surprising thing was that in about one race in four, I was actually successful.

I created a name for this tactic and I called it “Pivotal In running Betting” or PIB’s for short. One of the things that I had noticed was that when a race leader is overtaken in the final furlong or half a furlong then it very rarely comes back and wins. The slowness of the process of placing the bet in the conventional Betfair way was prohibiting me from getting about three quarters of the bets matched but I WAS getting some of them matched.

This was back in the early days when there were no such things as “Bet Angel” and “BET-IE” and all of the rest of the betting exchange programs that are out there at the moment. I am convinced that with the aid of a piece of software like Bet Angel for instance, the facility for “one click betting” would have presented me with the necessary extra speed needed in order to get many more bets matched. There are a vast number of people on Betfair and they have something like several hundred thousand clients although not all of them are active at anyone time. But many of them are active in the latter stages of a race in running and many will be using bots and other types of software that connects with the Betfair system.

There will be people Dutching and Arbing and doing all sorts of stuff and this is why I think that the strategy worked. Depending on the type of strategy that they are using, they may not be even bothered that a particular horse is beaten and of course bots and programs have no emotion at all just a set strategy that they are adhering to. Do not be tempted to lay a horse too early from the finish. For instance if a horse has been in the lead and now several contenders are hovering right on it’s shoulder with a furlong to go, do not assume that the horse is beaten.

This might seem that they are about to sweep past the horse but unless you know a thing or two about horse racing you could come unstuck laying horses at this stage. For instance, the horse that is in the lead may be a proven front runner and stayer over the distance and the challengers may not. But with a little work and effort and some practice watching horse races, you will start to see when that “pivotal moment” arrives.

You will also see prices to lay the horse after this moment has passed. Knowing when the pivot has arrived is a skill but it can be learnt and you do not need to have years of experience or be a horse racing anorak to make the system work. It is very difficult to put into words when that precise Pivotal moment is in that final furlong but with practice, you will begin to recognise it and be able to act on it.

The first few times that you try this you will likely not get the best matched or you will lay a winner. Do not be too dispirited though, practice and your perseverance will be rewarded.