Poker Statistics and Hand Probabilities

Opening Hand Odds For Texas Hold’em

Why is it important?

The ability to figure out, right away, whether your hand has a realistic shot at being a winner is not easy.

Knowing how to to do that is a skill that comes with experience. More experienced poker players can calculate, as soon as their opening cards are dealt and before the flop, whether they’ll want to stay in the game and odds of hitting draws or certain hand rankings in each street.. This process is called statistical analysis. In seconds they can assess their chances of winning, also known as the pot odds, by mentally juggling fixed numbers (such as the number of suits and card values in a deck) and variable numbers (such as the number of players in that particular game).

Some poker players are just very good with numbers. But even if aren’t, its OK. The following probabilities/statistics are easy to memorise. So next time you get frustrated after playing for 2 hours without getting AA, then you’ll know why it doesn’t come around as often as you think and hopefully not go on a tilt.

Odds of being Dealt:

AA                                                       220-1

Any pocket Pair                               16-1

AKs                                                     331-1

Suited hole cards                          just under 4-1

AK                                                       110-1

Ax                                                        5.7-1

s=suited x=any card

Odds Of Hitting The Following Hands On The Flop For Texas Hold’em

Flopping a pair                                                                                            2.2-1

Flopping a set when holding a pocket pair                                        7.5-1

Flopping a flush when holding two suited cards                             118-1

Flopping a flush draw when holding two suited cards                      8-1

Completing a flush draw with two cards to come                            1.8-1

Completing a backdoor flush draw                                                         23-1

All In Favorite-to-underdog matchup Probability

Pair vs. 2 undercards                                                                 83%

Pair vs. lower pair                                                                       82%

Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard                                           71%

2 overcards vs. 2 undercards                                                 63%

Pair vs. 2 overcards                                                                     55%

Probability Of Completing A Particular Hand In Texas Hold’em

Royal Flush                                            4 hands in 2,598,960  or  0.000154%

Straight Flush                                          36 hands in 2,598,960 or 0.00139%

Four of a Kind                                          624 hands in 2,598,960 or 0.0240%

Full House                                                3744 hands in 2,598,960 or 0.144%

Flush                                                        5108 hands in 2,598,960 or 0.197%

Straight                                                  10,200 hands in 2,598,960 or 0.392%

Three of a Kind                                         54912 hands in 2,598,960 or 2.11%

Two Pair                                                 123,552 hands in 2,598,960 or 4.75%

For a more detailed analysis on these types of statistics, take a look at this link.