Sunday, Jul. 20, 2014

Test Results for Tennis Systems…

I now have had a full week at the Australian Open (OK, I was not actually there, unfortunately only in my dreams) to assess the performance of the tennis betting systems.

The results from the Tennis Betting System are mixed, showing a return of just above average.

The good news is that you will be unlikely to make significant losses if applying this system over the longer term.

The bad news is that it is not likely to make you a millionaire either!

Nevertheless, as long as you initially try with small stakes, you might be able to build up a reasonable if not massive profit over a long period.

Overall, we have win rate of 64 per cent, which would give you a marginally positive return. This is over 30 matches, which is a reasonable sample from which to judge.

Whilst this performance may not be scintillating, the system could well be adaptable.

For instance, rather than basing your trades on one criterion only, you could benefit by taking additional factors into account, namely:

• Recent Form
• Performance at Grand Slam Events (some players perform significantly better or worse at the big events)
• Surface (for instance Andy Murray generally favours a hard court over grass so I would be more likely to back one of his matches at the Australian Open than at Wimbledon)

I am going to do is add these into the original system to see if performance can be raised.

The idea is simple: Use the system criteria (I will not reveal what that is for obvious reasons) plus add the extra tests to make a valid bet.

For example, if the system says back the player, but recent form contradicts this, then leave alone.

The drawback is it will lead to far less valid matches. But if this means an increase in profit, then please bring it on!

Now to the Tennis Trading League. I have to be fair here: I simply do not yet have enough information to judge. But as I said last week, I can certainly see the potential for profits.

The author does take time to explain the circumstances under which a trade is not going to be profitable so that you can focus on the potentially lucrative trades only. As this system plays on market fluctuations, it is going to be important to monitor actual matches in-play. Therefore, before jumping in, I strongly advise you to simply monitor how the odds swing one way or another in response to points won and lost.

This is crucial given that a presumption is that when a trade moves against you it will only move one tick (e.g. 1.45 to 1.44) so that your losses on, say, a £100 trade will be kept to a manageable £1 whereas when it goes for you it might move, say 5 tickes, giving a £5 profit following the trade out for no loss on the downside.

Now I want to make clear, tennis market odds do not always respond in such an orderly fashion. One match I monitored during last week’s Australian Open, Gasquet versus Youzhny. In this game, the odds on Gasquet fluctuated between a low of 1.09 and and a high of well over 2.0 in the space of just 4 games, and that was before the end of the set. And they did not drift continually one way or another, they actually fluctuated up and down. Of course this can also present an opportunity, but in this case they did not always go up after Gasquet lost a point, as you might expect (and vice versa).

As I said, the author does explain the cases to avoid, but I think you still need to remember that tennis match odds can fluctuate in unpredictable manner and that if you are not aware of this you can get caught with considerable losses.

It would be nice if Betfair could return to the idea of “Play Version” where you can bet with imaginary money as the trials of the tennis ladder would be perfect with this. But for the moment, the next best thing is to try to see what would have happened or play with minimum stakes until you start to see consistent success.

But nevertheless the system offers a number of interesting ways to profit, and though I have yet to draw firm conclusions, it is definitely one to watch, so please check back regularly as I test it out in greater depth.

See the Tennis Trading League here…