Point & Unit Stake Advice
Last week, I posted quite a lengthy article about managing your spread bank, and I thought that this week to follow on from that, we needed to clarify how the points betting system works in spread betting.
Most tipsters will recommend bets based on a points system, and it is all perfectly straightforward in fixed odds betting, where you would set your single point level at say, £10, and stake £20 for a 2 point bet, or £5 for a 0.5 point bet and so on.
To take the most extreme examples from our Weekend Live markets, Total Goals and Total Goal Minutes, it is clear that betting on a 1 point, or £10 stake on each of them would produce vastly different liabilities. In fact, Sporting Index would refuse the TGM’s bet at that level, unless you were a big player.
The Total Goals buy price for the 7 featured matches on Saturday which we tipped up was 20.35 goals, which if bought at £10 would have incurred a maximum liability of 10 x 20.35 if no goals were scored.
Had Sporting had a lapse and allowed you to place a £10 on TGM’s at 1010 and no goals were scored, you would have been stopped out at 200 times stake, so £2000. Clearly, this is an extreme example, and in the event the 7 games gleaned 26 goals and a TGM’s total of 1395, so a good profit was made on each bet.
Hopefully, what this demonstrates is that while you need to have a points structure to your spread betting, it must be based on the market type, size and volatility.
For a low spread, low volatility bet like Total Goals, you would expect to place your bets at the level of your full point stake. Let’s use £10 as our point size for a low volatility spread.
If you look at a Total Goals price, either in a group of matches, or an individual game, you will see that the TGM’s price is roughly 50 times the TG’s price. So, if a match is spreading at 2.6-2.8 goals, you would expect to find the TGM’s price to be 130-140, and give or take a point or two, this is what you will always see.
Therefore, our TGM’s full point stake needs to be one-fiftieth of our Total Goals stake, so create a bet of similar liability, so a 20p stake would be the mark.
The other markets we like are the Aggregate Time of 1st Home/Away goal, both of which have been successful for us in the last two weekends. In our example of a 7 match group, the price for this market is likely to be somewhere between 300-400 depending on the strength or otherwise of the teams.
This market is a medium volatility market, and with a price of around 40% of the TGM’s figure in general, we should be staking at 40p as a full point, but as it has less of a variance I think a unit stake of 50p is sensible. I often advise a 0.5pt stake on one or other of the home/away markets, so 25p for these.
Bookings is a difficult one due to it’s volatility. There is an argument, and a strong one at that, that our unit stake on these markets should be lower than the 50p I am suggesting, but this comparative stake level has worked well for me over a long period.
The Corners market is the only other one we would be likely to enter on our Weekend Live bets, and my recommended unit stake for this would be £2.50.
Please let me know your comments regarding this or any other spread betting issues you might have. I’m really keen to get some dialogue moving on the Forum, although I know it’s early days for the new spread betting area.
To summarise then, these are the full point stakes I suggest for the Weekend Live spreads which I’ve been recommending for the last week or two;
Total Goals - £10
Total Goal Minutes - £0.20
Aggregate 1st Home/Away Goal - £0.50
Bookings - £0.50
Corners - £2.50
I hope this helps you on your way to a better understanding of all things spread betting, so that you can sample the excitement and enjoyment that I experience with my spread trades.